Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Zhang Jia Gang Freetrade Science&Technology Group Co.,Ltd. (600794.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Marine ShippingSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.10 - $2.06$1.49
Multi-Stage$1.83 - $2.01$1.92
Blended Fair Value$1.70
Current Price$4.19
Upside-59.35%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS61.31%11.78%0.140.040.030.020.020.010.040.010.010.05
YoY Growth--267.68%18.81%100.00%-28.26%74.24%-69.46%292.95%1.73%-78.00%3.80%
Dividend Yield--4.04%1.01%0.85%0.51%0.59%0.39%1.14%0.24%0.19%0.87%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)84.73
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)84.43
(=) Cash Retained (M)0.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)16.9510.596.35
Cash Retained (M)0.300.300.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-16.95-10.59-6.35
(=) Excess Retained (M)-16.64-10.29-6.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,156.231,156.231,156.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.01-0.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.01-0.01-0.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.060.060.07
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.11%2.11%3.11%
Fair Value$1.10$1.49$2.06
Upside / Downside-73.78%-64.44%-50.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)84.7386.5288.3590.2192.1294.0796.89
Payout Ratio99.64%97.71%95.79%93.86%91.93%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)84.4384.5484.6284.6784.6884.6689.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.51%6.51%6.51%
Growth Rate1.11%2.11%3.11%
Year 1 PV (M)78.6079.3880.15
Year 2 PV (M)73.1474.6076.07
Year 3 PV (M)68.0470.0872.16
Year 4 PV (M)63.2765.8168.42
Year 5 PV (M)58.8061.7764.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,774.781,864.291,957.39
Equity Value (M)2,116.642,215.932,319.04
Shares Outstanding (M)1,156.231,156.231,156.23
Fair Value$1.83$1.92$2.01
Upside / Downside-56.31%-54.26%-52.13%

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