DDM Analysis: 600782.SS

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$1.49 - $2.02	$1.76
Multi-Stage	$3.97 - $4.40	$4.18
Blended Fair Value	$2.97
Current Price	$4.18
Upside	-28.93%
Decision	Don't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-6.95%	-3.60%	0.19	0.14	0.54	0.35	0.25	0.28	0.20	0.17	0.21	0.25
YoY Growth	-	-	40.63%	-74.43%	55.88%	37.20%	-9.31%	40.22%	14.50%	-18.64%	-15.54%	-9.91%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.79%	3.86%	12.87%	6.14%	4.40%	6.85%	3.16%	2.92%	5.72%	9.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	971.64
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	76.25
(=) Cash Retained (M)	895.39

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	194.33	121.46	72.87
Cash Retained (M)	895.39	895.39	895.39
(-) Cash Required (M)	-194.33	-121.46	-72.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)	701.06	773.93	822.52
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	3,138.56	3,138.56	3,138.56
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.25	0.26
LTM Dividend per Share	0.02	0.02	0.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.22	0.25	0.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.25	0.27	0.29
WACC / Discount Rate	6.96%	6.96%	6.96%
Growth Rate	-8.31%	-7.31%	-6.31%
Fair Value	$1.49	$1.76	$2.02
Upside / Downside	-64.41%	-57.90%	-51.62%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	971.64	900.63	834.81	773.80	717.25	664.83	684.78
Payout Ratio	7.85%	24.28%	40.71%	57.14%	73.57%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	76.25	218.66	339.84	442.15	527.68	598.35	633.42

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	6.96%	6.96%	6.96%
Growth Rate	-8.31%	-7.31%	-6.31%
Year 1 PV (M)	202.23	204.43	206.64
Year 2 PV (M)	290.69	297.06	303.51
Year 3 PV (M)	349.77	361.34	373.17
Year 4 PV (M)	386.07	403.19	420.87
Year 5 PV (M)	404.88	427.45	451.01
PV of Terminal Value (M)	10,828.03	11,431.51	12,061.60
Equity Value (M)	12,461.68	13,124.99	13,816.79
Shares Outstanding (M)	3,138.56	3,138.56	3,138.56
Fair Value	$3.97	$4.18	$4.40
Upside / Downside	-5.01%	0.04%	5.32%

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Xinyu Iron & Steel Co., Ltd (600782.SS)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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