Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Hec Technologyholding Co., Ltd (600673.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$55.79 - $65.73$61.60
Multi-Stage$39.53 - $43.39$41.42
Blended Fair Value$51.51
Current Price$23.28
Upside121.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.40%15.13%0.470.140.390.170.180.220.110.150.160.11
YoY Growth--231.69%-63.60%126.60%-6.60%-16.40%92.76%-23.41%-8.22%40.75%0.45%
Dividend Yield--4.71%1.62%4.33%2.33%3.69%3.13%1.19%1.46%2.22%1.34%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)968.03
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)294.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)673.33
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)193.61121.0072.60
Cash Retained (M)673.33673.33673.33
(-) Cash Required (M)-193.61-121.00-72.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)479.73552.33600.73
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,928.902,928.902,928.90
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.100.100.10
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.160.190.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.31
WACC / Discount Rate1.46%1.46%1.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$55.79$61.60$65.73
Upside / Downside139.65%164.60%182.35%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)968.031,030.951,097.971,169.331,245.341,326.291,366.08
Payout Ratio30.44%42.35%54.27%66.18%78.09%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)294.70436.65595.82773.83972.471,193.661,263.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.46%1.46%1.46%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)426.34430.39434.43
Year 2 PV (M)568.02578.84589.76
Year 3 PV (M)720.30740.98762.05
Year 4 PV (M)883.83917.82952.78
Year 5 PV (M)1,059.241,110.401,163.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)112,132.58117,548.63123,171.96
Equity Value (M)115,790.32121,327.06127,074.50
Shares Outstanding (M)2,928.902,928.902,928.90
Fair Value$39.53$41.42$43.39
Upside / Downside69.82%77.94%86.37%

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