Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Fuyao Glass Industry Group Co., Ltd. (600660.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$282.71 - $692.58$649.05
Multi-Stage$101.96 - $111.54$106.66
Blended Fair Value$377.86
Current Price$73.41
Upside414.72%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS9.96%11.53%1.421.381.110.870.850.891.270.810.780.66
YoY Growth--3.25%23.70%27.65%2.64%-3.93%-30.06%56.48%3.72%18.70%37.47%
Dividend Yield--2.43%3.08%3.21%2.45%1.85%4.62%5.12%3.27%3.45%4.41%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)9,083.05
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)4,845.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)4,237.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,816.611,135.38681.23
Cash Retained (M)4,237.954,237.954,237.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,816.61-1,135.38-681.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,421.343,102.573,556.72
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,608.212,608.212,608.21
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.931.191.36
LTM Dividend per Share1.861.861.86
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.931.191.36
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.793.053.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$282.71$649.05$692.58
Upside / Downside285.10%784.14%843.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)9,083.059,673.4410,302.2210,971.8611,685.0312,444.5612,817.90
Payout Ratio53.34%60.67%68.01%75.34%82.67%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)4,845.105,869.247,006.068,265.869,659.8311,200.1011,856.55

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)5,457.255,508.975,560.70
Year 2 PV (M)6,056.996,172.366,288.81
Year 3 PV (M)6,644.506,835.247,029.60
Year 4 PV (M)7,219.977,497.637,783.23
Year 5 PV (M)7,783.588,159.538,549.87
PV of Terminal Value (M)232,783.85244,027.40255,701.26
Equity Value (M)265,946.15278,201.14290,913.48
Shares Outstanding (M)2,608.212,608.212,608.21
Fair Value$101.96$106.66$111.54
Upside / Downside38.90%45.30%51.94%

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