Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shandong Hualu-Hengsheng Chemical Co., Ltd. (600426.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$182.53 - $303.13$284.08
Multi-Stage$49.24 - $53.89$51.52
Blended Fair Value$167.80
Current Price$26.61
Upside530.60%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS34.19%18.40%1.040.910.860.290.320.240.230.160.130.19
YoY Growth--13.87%6.39%196.58%-10.21%34.89%6.20%38.64%27.97%-33.19%-1.18%
Dividend Yield--4.71%3.40%2.44%0.89%1.12%1.98%1.80%1.33%1.61%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,227.62
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,491.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,735.67
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)645.52403.45242.07
Cash Retained (M)1,735.671,735.671,735.67
(-) Cash Required (M)-645.52-403.45-242.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,090.151,332.221,493.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,117.522,117.522,117.52
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.510.630.71
LTM Dividend per Share0.700.700.70
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.510.630.71
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.221.331.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$182.53$284.08$303.13
Upside / Downside585.93%967.57%1,039.18%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,227.623,437.413,660.843,898.804,152.224,422.124,554.78
Payout Ratio46.22%54.98%63.73%72.49%81.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,491.951,889.872,333.232,826.233,373.473,979.904,213.17

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,762.751,779.461,796.17
Year 2 PV (M)2,029.902,068.562,107.59
Year 3 PV (M)2,293.422,359.262,426.34
Year 4 PV (M)2,553.362,651.552,752.55
Year 5 PV (M)2,809.742,945.453,086.36
PV of Terminal Value (M)92,811.1597,293.96101,948.34
Equity Value (M)104,260.32109,098.24114,117.35
Shares Outstanding (M)2,117.522,117.522,117.52
Fair Value$49.24$51.52$53.89
Upside / Downside85.03%93.62%102.53%

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