Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Shanghai Belling Co., Ltd. (600171.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$23.62 - $101.27$57.93
Multi-Stage$11.93 - $13.05$12.48
Blended Fair Value$35.21
Current Price$37.05
Upside-4.98%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS16.28%18.06%0.100.200.200.130.110.050.080.020.020.02
YoY Growth---50.16%0.02%53.76%19.44%132.24%-40.43%315.32%-20.00%25.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.29%1.59%0.95%0.67%0.73%0.29%0.51%0.13%0.18%0.12%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)361.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)120.61
(=) Cash Retained (M)240.62
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)72.2545.1527.09
Cash Retained (M)240.62240.62240.62
(-) Cash Required (M)-72.25-45.15-27.09
(=) Excess Retained (M)168.37195.46213.53
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)709.40709.40709.40
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.170.170.17
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.280.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.410.450.47
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$23.62$57.93$101.27
Upside / Downside-36.23%56.36%173.33%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)361.23384.71409.71436.35464.71494.91509.76
Payout Ratio33.39%44.71%56.03%67.36%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)120.61172.01229.58293.90365.62445.42471.53

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.32%7.32%7.32%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)158.77160.28161.78
Year 2 PV (M)195.60199.33203.09
Year 3 PV (M)231.14237.78244.54
Year 4 PV (M)265.42275.63286.13
Year 5 PV (M)298.47312.89327.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,315.487,668.828,035.68
Equity Value (M)8,464.898,854.729,259.08
Shares Outstanding (M)709.40709.40709.40
Fair Value$11.93$12.48$13.05
Upside / Downside-67.79%-66.31%-64.77%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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