Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

China CSSC Holdings Limited (600150.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$32.59 - $92.90$50.92
Multi-Stage$21.78 - $23.81$22.78
Blended Fair Value$36.85
Current Price$34.60
Upside6.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.65%8.28%0.260.140.160.150.150.130.060.180.160.13
YoY Growth--81.49%-10.10%8.72%0.59%15.96%121.93%-68.08%12.73%21.41%10.39%
Dividend Yield--0.85%0.38%0.68%0.85%0.95%0.68%0.28%0.93%0.56%0.52%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)6,363.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,325.53
(=) Cash Retained (M)5,038.40
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)1,272.79795.49477.29
Cash Retained (M)5,038.405,038.405,038.40
(-) Cash Required (M)-1,272.79-795.49-477.29
(=) Excess Retained (M)3,765.614,242.914,561.10
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,834.694,834.694,834.69
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.780.880.94
LTM Dividend per Share0.270.270.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.780.880.94
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.051.151.22
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$32.59$50.92$92.90
Upside / Downside-5.81%47.17%168.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)6,363.936,777.597,218.137,687.318,186.988,719.148,980.71
Payout Ratio20.83%34.66%48.50%62.33%76.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,325.532,349.323,500.604,791.626,235.687,847.228,307.16

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.91%8.91%8.91%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)2,136.892,157.142,177.40
Year 2 PV (M)2,896.152,951.313,007.00
Year 3 PV (M)3,605.793,709.303,814.77
Year 4 PV (M)4,268.174,432.314,601.14
Year 5 PV (M)4,885.545,121.525,366.52
PV of Terminal Value (M)87,526.8291,754.4096,143.77
Equity Value (M)105,319.35110,125.97115,110.59
Shares Outstanding (M)4,834.694,834.694,834.69
Fair Value$21.78$22.78$23.81
Upside / Downside-37.04%-34.17%-31.19%

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