Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Company Industry Sector

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Margins Returns Growth Rates Metrics/Ratios

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Company Industry Sector

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Linhai Co.,Ltd. (600099.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.47 - $7.62$3.94
Multi-Stage$1.58 - $1.73$1.66
Blended Fair Value$2.80
Current Price$10.56
Upside-73.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%-6.55%0.030.030.000.000.040.000.000.040.000.00
YoY Growth---25.61%3,741.86%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--0.26%0.41%0.01%0.00%0.65%0.00%0.00%0.44%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)20.72
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.57
(=) Cash Retained (M)20.15
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)4.142.591.55
Cash Retained (M)20.1520.1520.15
(-) Cash Required (M)-4.14-2.59-1.55
(=) Excess Retained (M)16.0117.5618.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)219.42219.42219.42
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.080.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.080.080.09
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$2.47$3.94$7.62
Upside / Downside-76.65%-62.68%-27.87%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)20.7222.0723.5025.0326.6628.3929.24
Payout Ratio2.74%20.20%37.65%55.10%72.55%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.574.468.8513.7919.3425.5527.05

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.73%8.73%8.73%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)4.064.104.14
Year 2 PV (M)7.347.487.63
Year 3 PV (M)10.4310.7311.03
Year 4 PV (M)13.3213.8414.36
Year 5 PV (M)16.0416.8117.62
PV of Terminal Value (M)296.14310.45325.30
Equity Value (M)347.34363.41380.07
Shares Outstanding (M)219.42219.42219.42
Fair Value$1.58$1.66$1.73
Upside / Downside-85.01%-84.32%-83.60%

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