Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Nanjing Gaoke Company Limited (600064.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Real Estate - ServicesSector: Real Estate

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$12.51 - $19.35$15.68
Multi-Stage$27.80 - $30.65$29.20
Blended Fair Value$22.44
Current Price$8.06
Upside178.39%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS15.40%4.56%0.440.470.540.360.370.220.150.300.250.17
YoY Growth---6.68%-11.58%49.85%-2.19%69.21%46.10%-50.68%20.73%46.67%-40.21%
Dividend Yield--6.05%7.50%8.07%4.89%5.08%3.66%1.75%5.69%3.99%2.76%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)2,325.22
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)362.72
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,962.50
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)465.04290.65174.39
Cash Retained (M)1,962.501,962.501,962.50
(-) Cash Required (M)-465.04-290.65-174.39
(=) Excess Retained (M)1,497.461,671.851,788.11
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,730.351,730.351,730.35
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.870.971.03
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.870.971.03
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.24
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$12.51$15.68$19.35
Upside / Downside55.15%94.51%140.04%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)2,325.222,301.972,278.952,256.162,233.602,211.262,277.60
Payout Ratio15.60%30.48%45.36%60.24%75.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)362.72701.631,033.721,359.101,677.871,990.132,106.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.42%6.42%6.42%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)652.61659.27665.93
Year 2 PV (M)894.33912.68931.21
Year 3 PV (M)1,093.701,127.521,162.03
Year 4 PV (M)1,255.891,307.941,361.59
Year 5 PV (M)1,385.551,457.701,532.82
PV of Terminal Value (M)42,827.5745,057.7047,379.78
Equity Value (M)48,109.6550,522.8153,033.37
Shares Outstanding (M)1,730.351,730.351,730.35
Fair Value$27.80$29.20$30.65
Upside / Downside244.96%262.26%280.26%

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