Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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DongFeng Automobile Co. Ltd. (600006.SS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - ManufacturersSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.42 - $0.57$0.50
Multi-Stage$0.79 - $0.87$0.83
Blended Fair Value$0.66
Current Price$8.06
Upside-91.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-18.42%-1.58%0.020.030.040.060.050.060.020.020.080.03
YoY Growth---29.67%-23.30%-32.85%25.15%-20.29%174.92%-8.41%-70.89%136.86%35.98%
Dividend Yield--0.27%0.36%0.67%1.04%0.73%1.40%0.41%0.46%1.13%0.53%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)245.34
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)0.07
(=) Cash Retained (M)245.27
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)49.0730.6718.40
Cash Retained (M)245.27245.27245.27
(-) Cash Required (M)-49.07-30.67-18.40
(=) Excess Retained (M)196.20214.60226.87
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,916.222,916.222,916.22
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.070.08
LTM Dividend per Share0.000.000.00
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.070.08
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.070.070.08
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate-6.15%-5.15%-4.15%
Fair Value$0.42$0.50$0.57
Upside / Downside-94.78%-93.81%-92.88%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)245.34232.70220.71209.34198.56188.33193.98
Payout Ratio0.03%18.02%36.02%54.01%72.01%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)0.0741.9479.50113.07142.98169.50179.43

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.85%8.85%8.85%
Growth Rate-6.15%-5.15%-4.15%
Year 1 PV (M)38.1238.5338.94
Year 2 PV (M)65.6867.0968.51
Year 3 PV (M)84.9287.6690.47
Year 4 PV (M)97.61101.83106.20
Year 5 PV (M)105.18110.91116.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,902.162,005.692,113.67
Equity Value (M)2,293.682,411.712,534.66
Shares Outstanding (M)2,916.222,916.222,916.22
Fair Value$0.79$0.83$0.87
Upside / Downside-90.24%-89.74%-89.22%

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