Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

New Era Electronics Co., Ltd (4909.TWO)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$42.83 - $65.67$53.48
Multi-Stage$91.07 - $100.37$95.63
Blended Fair Value$74.56
Current Price$74.20
Upside0.48%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS-6.51%0.00%0.490.000.000.300.300.690.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%-100.00%0.00%-57.14%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.56%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)446.87
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.02
(=) Cash Retained (M)376.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)89.3755.8633.52
Cash Retained (M)376.85376.85376.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-89.37-55.86-33.52
(=) Excess Retained (M)287.48320.99343.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)94.3094.3094.30
(=) Excess Retained per Share3.053.403.64
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share3.053.403.64
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.794.154.38
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$42.83$53.48$65.67
Upside / Downside-42.28%-27.92%-11.50%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)446.87442.40437.98433.60429.26424.97437.72
Payout Ratio15.67%30.53%45.40%60.27%75.13%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.02135.09198.85261.32322.52382.47404.89

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)125.35126.63127.91
Year 2 PV (M)171.23174.74178.29
Year 3 PV (M)208.81215.27221.86
Year 4 PV (M)239.15249.06259.28
Year 5 PV (M)263.17276.88291.15
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,580.687,975.428,386.44
Equity Value (M)8,588.399,018.009,464.92
Shares Outstanding (M)94.3094.3094.30
Fair Value$91.07$95.63$100.37
Upside / Downside22.74%28.88%35.27%

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