Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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OBIC Business Consultants Co., Ltd. (4733.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Information Technology ServicesSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$8,341.63 - $44,506.77$16,494.79
Multi-Stage$4,775.43 - $5,218.59$4,992.98
Blended Fair Value$10,743.88
Current Price$9,100.00
Upside18.06%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS13.71%13.62%94.9969.9969.9964.9850.0149.9739.9937.5034.9929.00
YoY Growth--35.72%0.00%7.71%29.94%0.08%24.95%6.66%7.16%20.68%9.42%
Dividend Yield--1.11%1.04%1.33%1.39%0.78%0.87%0.81%0.95%1.19%1.27%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)16,823.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)7,518.96
(=) Cash Retained (M)9,304.85
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)3,364.762,102.981,261.79
Cash Retained (M)9,304.859,304.859,304.85
(-) Cash Required (M)-3,364.76-2,102.98-1,261.79
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,940.097,201.878,043.06
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)75.1875.1875.18
(=) Excess Retained per Share79.0295.80106.99
LTM Dividend per Share100.02100.02100.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share79.0295.80106.99
(=) Adjusted Dividend179.03195.82207.01
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$8,341.63$16,494.79$44,506.77
Upside / Downside-8.33%81.26%389.09%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)16,823.8017,917.3519,081.9820,322.3121,643.2623,050.0723,741.57
Payout Ratio44.69%53.75%62.82%71.88%80.94%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)7,518.969,631.2711,986.4214,607.0517,517.7220,745.0621,960.96

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.76%7.76%7.76%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)8,853.438,937.359,021.27
Year 2 PV (M)10,128.5110,321.4310,516.17
Year 3 PV (M)11,346.0911,671.8012,003.68
Year 4 PV (M)12,508.0412,989.0613,483.83
Year 5 PV (M)13,616.1414,273.8114,956.64
PV of Terminal Value (M)302,544.78317,157.81332,330.11
Equity Value (M)358,996.99375,351.25392,311.69
Shares Outstanding (M)75.1875.1875.18
Fair Value$4,775.43$4,992.98$5,218.59
Upside / Downside-47.52%-45.13%-42.65%

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