DDM Analysis: 4506.T

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$2,066.30 - $2,839.45	$2,456.87
Multi-Stage	$4,002.40 - $4,422.82	$4,208.33
Blended Fair Value	$3,332.60
Current Price	$1,711.00
Upside	94.77%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2025	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016
DPS	-81.30%	-54.05%	0.01	7.03	28.00	28.00	27.99	32.99	27.99	20.00	18.00	18.00
YoY Growth	-	-	-99.89%	-74.90%	-0.01%	0.05%	-15.15%	17.84%	40.01%	11.09%	-0.01%	0.00%
Dividend Yield	-	-	0.00%	1.80%	4.38%	2.57%	1.20%	2.21%	1.32%	0.85%	1.17%	1.02%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	154,723.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	3.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)	154,720.00

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	30,944.60	19,340.38	11,604.23
Cash Retained (M)	154,720.00	154,720.00	154,720.00
(-) Cash Required (M)	-30,944.60	-19,340.38	-11,604.23
(=) Excess Retained (M)	123,775.40	135,379.63	143,115.78
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	397.29	397.29	397.29
(=) Excess Retained per Share	311.55	340.76	360.23
LTM Dividend per Share	0.01	0.01	0.01
(+) Excess Retained per Share	311.55	340.76	360.23
(=) Adjusted Dividend	311.56	340.77	360.24
WACC / Discount Rate	8.47%	8.47%	8.47%
Growth Rate	-5.75%	-4.75%	-3.75%
Fair Value	$2,066.30	$2,456.87	$2,839.45
Upside / Downside	20.77%	43.59%	65.95%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	154,723.00	147,379.16	140,383.89	133,720.65	127,373.67	121,327.95	124,967.79
Payout Ratio	0.00%	18.00%	36.00%	54.00%	72.00%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	3.00	26,530.53	50,539.83	72,210.19	91,709.54	109,195.15	115,595.20

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	8.47%	8.47%	8.47%
Growth Rate	-5.75%	-4.75%	-3.75%
Year 1 PV (M)	24,203.18	24,459.96	24,716.75
Year 2 PV (M)	42,061.67	42,958.93	43,865.65
Year 3 PV (M)	54,824.86	56,588.46	58,389.48
Year 4 PV (M)	63,521.38	66,260.35	69,086.96
Year 5 PV (M)	68,997.78	72,736.50	76,635.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)	1,336,503.40	1,408,923.25	1,484,448.94
Equity Value (M)	1,590,112.27	1,671,927.46	1,757,143.35
Shares Outstanding (M)	397.29	397.29	397.29
Fair Value	$4,002.40	$4,208.33	$4,422.82
Upside / Downside	133.92%	145.96%	158.49%

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VHI	Valhi, Inc.	2.63%	$0.32	49.46%
FHI	Federated Hermes, Inc.	2.62%	$1.37	27.23%
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UNH	UnitedHealth Group Incorporated	2.56%	$8.60	44.61%
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Sumitomo Pharma Co., Ltd. (4506.T)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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