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Definitive Analysis

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Hdhms (443060.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$49,947.78 - $75,126.32$61,855.15
Multi-Stage$102,167.92 - $112,197.20$107,085.20
Blended Fair Value$84,470.17
Current Price$210,000.00
Upside-59.78%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%2,234.882,011.341,787.864,246.163,575.720.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--11.11%12.50%-57.89%18.75%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.23%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)264,473.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)183,799.76
(=) Cash Retained (M)80,673.95
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)52,894.7433,059.2119,835.53
Cash Retained (M)80,673.9580,673.9580,673.95
(-) Cash Required (M)-52,894.74-33,059.21-19,835.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)27,779.2147,614.7460,838.42
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)44.7544.7544.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share620.821,064.111,359.63
LTM Dividend per Share4,107.604,107.604,107.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share620.821,064.111,359.63
(=) Adjusted Dividend4,728.425,171.715,467.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$49,947.78$61,855.15$75,126.32
Upside / Downside-76.22%-70.55%-64.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)264,473.71261,828.98259,210.69256,618.58254,052.39251,511.87259,057.23
Payout Ratio69.50%73.60%77.70%81.80%85.90%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)183,799.76192,698.63201,401.13209,910.32218,229.19226,360.68239,627.93

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.28%7.28%7.28%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)177,812.10179,626.51181,440.92
Year 2 PV (M)171,485.47175,003.03178,556.30
Year 3 PV (M)164,923.26170,023.62175,228.07
Year 4 PV (M)158,213.54164,770.75171,529.71
Year 5 PV (M)151,430.90159,316.26167,526.74
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,747,767.373,942,922.314,146,123.63
Equity Value (M)4,571,632.644,791,662.495,020,405.36
Shares Outstanding (M)44.7544.7544.75
Fair Value$102,167.92$107,085.20$112,197.20
Upside / Downside-51.35%-49.01%-46.57%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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