Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Kasumigaseki Capital Co.,Ltd. (3498.T)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26,584.43 - $101,860.86$76,234.96
Multi-Stage$12,425.65 - $13,603.43$13,003.72
Blended Fair Value$44,619.34
Current Price$8,810.00
Upside406.46%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2025202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS97.90%0.00%83.4924.4712.036.643.162.750.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--241.13%103.39%81.20%110.15%14.89%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.95%0.39%0.26%0.26%0.12%0.31%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)10,251.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,670.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)8,581.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,050.201,281.38768.83
Cash Retained (M)8,581.008,581.008,581.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,050.20-1,281.38-768.83
(=) Excess Retained (M)6,530.807,299.637,812.18
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)20.0120.0120.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share326.31364.72390.33
LTM Dividend per Share83.4483.4483.44
(+) Excess Retained per Share326.31364.72390.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend409.75448.16473.77
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$26,584.43$76,234.96$101,860.86
Upside / Downside201.75%765.32%1,056.20%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)10,251.0010,917.3211,626.9412,382.6913,187.5714,044.7614,466.10
Payout Ratio16.29%31.03%45.77%60.52%75.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,670.003,387.965,322.197,493.569,924.7312,640.2813,381.14

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.13%7.13%7.13%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)3,132.893,162.593,192.28
Year 2 PV (M)4,550.994,637.674,725.17
Year 3 PV (M)5,925.316,095.416,268.73
Year 4 PV (M)7,256.877,535.957,823.00
Year 5 PV (M)8,546.638,959.449,388.04
PV of Terminal Value (M)219,277.28229,868.45240,864.97
Equity Value (M)248,689.97260,259.50272,262.20
Shares Outstanding (M)20.0120.0120.01
Fair Value$12,425.65$13,003.72$13,603.43
Upside / Downside41.04%47.60%54.41%

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