Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $20.95 - $30.77 | $25.67 |
| Multi-Stage | $56.12 - $61.85 | $58.93 |
| Blended Fair Value | $42.30 | |
| Current Price | $39.58 | |
| Upside | 6.87% | |
| Decision | Don't Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -7.16% | -10.84% | 2.24 | 3.33 | 3.42 | 3.50 | 3.50 | 3.25 | 3.25 | 5.00 | 5.75 | 5.50 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -32.68% | -2.78% | -2.17% | 0.00% | 7.69% | 0.00% | -35.00% | -13.04% | 4.55% | -22.11% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 4.89% | 7.14% | 6.11% | 5.75% | 5.27% | 6.63% | 5.56% | 9.30% | 9.61% | 8.72% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 424.72 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 251.03 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 173.69 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 84.94 | 53.09 | 31.85 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 173.69 | 173.69 | 173.69 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -84.94 | -53.09 | -31.85 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 88.75 | 120.60 | 141.84 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 153.00 | 153.00 | 153.00 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.58 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 1.64 | 1.64 | 1.64 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.58 | 0.79 | 0.93 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 2.22 | 2.43 | 2.57 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -3.87% | -2.87% | -1.87% |
| Fair Value | $20.95 | $25.67 | $30.77 |
| Upside / Downside | -47.06% | -35.13% | -22.26% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 424.72 | 412.52 | 400.67 | 389.16 | 377.98 | 367.12 | 378.13 |
| Payout Ratio | 59.10% | 65.28% | 71.46% | 77.64% | 83.82% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 251.03 | 269.31 | 286.33 | 302.15 | 316.82 | 330.41 | 349.77 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.32% | 6.32% | 6.32% |
| Growth Rate | -3.87% | -2.87% | -1.87% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 250.70 | 253.31 | 255.92 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 248.13 | 253.32 | 258.56 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 243.75 | 251.44 | 259.28 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 237.93 | 247.99 | 258.36 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 230.99 | 243.25 | 256.04 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 7,374.70 | 7,766.36 | 8,174.48 |
| Equity Value (M) | 8,586.20 | 9,015.66 | 9,462.63 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 153.00 | 153.00 | 153.00 |
| Fair Value | $56.12 | $58.93 | $61.85 |
| Upside / Downside | 41.79% | 48.88% | 56.26% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVSP | Univest Financial Corporation | 2.69% | $0.87 | 28.95% |
| VBTX | Veritex Holdings, Inc. | 2.69% | $0.81 | 38.53% |
| CBT | Cabot Corporation | 2.68% | $1.80 | 29.00% |
| PKOH | Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | 2.68% | $0.56 | 33.19% |
| WINA | Winmark Corporation | 2.68% | $10.76 | 96.24% |
| CHCO | City Holding Company | 2.67% | $3.20 | 36.27% |
| IDA | IDACORP, Inc. | 2.67% | $3.40 | 58.98% |
| LFVN | LifeVantage Corporation | 2.67% | $0.16 | 18.67% |
| MMM | 3M Company | 2.67% | $4.31 | 68.77% |
| MSEX | Middlesex Water Company | 2.67% | $1.34 | 56.69% |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 2.67% | $0.60 | 35.48% |
| 0HQU.L | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 2.66% | $2.07 | 24.22% |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | 2.66% | $0.60 | 32.28% |
| PEBK | Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. | 2.66% | $0.95 | 30.99% |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. | 2.65% | $1.63 | 26.64% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | 2.65% | $9.15 | 62.39% |
| MVBF | MVB Financial Corp. | 2.65% | $0.68 | 27.31% |
| PPG | PPG Industries, Inc. | 2.65% | $2.76 | 62.85% |
| TWMIX | American Century Emerging Markets Investor Class | 2.64% | $0.40 | 76.80% |
| 0M2A.L | Adeia Inc. | 2.63% | $0.35 | 53.29% |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | 2.63% | $1.20 | 59.56% |
| FRAF | Franklin Financial Services Corporation | 2.63% | $1.28 | 36.88% |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | 2.63% | $3.12 | 37.81% |
| VHI | Valhi, Inc. | 2.63% | $0.32 | 49.46% |
| FHI | Federated Hermes, Inc. | 2.62% | $1.37 | 27.23% |
| MKC | McCormick & Company, Incorporated | 2.62% | $1.76 | 61.04% |
| SLB | SLB N.V. | 2.62% | $1.05 | 42.94% |
| BAH | Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | 2.61% | $2.22 | 33.15% |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 2.61% | $3.18 | 49.10% |
| AWR | American States Water Company | 2.60% | $1.88 | 55.89% |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.46 | 28.75% |
| MDU | MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.51 | 62.41% |
| PLBC | Plumas Bancorp | 2.59% | $1.14 | 27.38% |
| CRD-A | Crawford & Company | 2.58% | $0.28 | 43.18% |
| WBS | Webster Financial Corporation | 2.57% | $1.64 | 29.21% |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | 2.56% | $3.90 | 26.98% |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | 2.56% | $1.63 | 49.77% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 2.56% | $8.60 | 44.61% |
| DOX | Amdocs Limited | 2.55% | $2.04 | 39.68% |
| DVN | Devon Energy Corporation | 2.55% | $0.96 | 22.55% |
| TGNA | TEGNA Inc. | 2.55% | $0.49 | 23.26% |
| CFFI | C&F Financial Corporation | 2.54% | $1.80 | 22.24% |
| MTH | Meritage Homes Corporation | 2.54% | $1.68 | 21.92% |
| DTM | DT Midstream, Inc. | 2.52% | $3.04 | 77.42% |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss & Co. | 2.52% | $0.52 | 34.78% |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas Company | 2.52% | $2.07 | 36.34% |
| AMNB | American National Bankshares Inc. | 2.51% | $1.20 | 48.76% |
| HIMYX | Pioneer High Income Municipal Fund Class Y | 2.51% | $0.14 | 81.31% |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | 2.50% | $1.18 | 37.66% |
| FMBH | First Mid Bancshares, Inc. | 2.50% | $0.96 | 26.52% |