Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

Sector

CAC Nantong Chemical Co Ltd (301665.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Agricultural InputsSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.64 - $16.59$13.38
Multi-Stage$25.26 - $27.82$26.52
Blended Fair Value$19.95
Current Price$29.19
Upside-31.66%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS0.00%0.00%0.160.170.900.110.820.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---7.80%-80.89%686.86%-86.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.40%0.43%2.25%0.29%2.05%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)466.80
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)215.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)251.22
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)93.3658.3535.01
Cash Retained (M)251.22251.22251.22
(-) Cash Required (M)-93.36-58.35-35.01
(=) Excess Retained (M)157.86192.87216.21
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)419.41419.41419.41
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.380.460.52
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.380.460.52
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.890.971.03
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$10.64$13.38$16.59
Upside / Downside-63.57%-54.16%-43.16%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)466.80462.13457.51452.94448.41443.92457.24
Payout Ratio46.18%54.95%63.71%72.47%81.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)215.58253.92291.48328.26364.27399.53422.95

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.20%6.20%6.20%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)236.67239.09241.50
Year 2 PV (M)253.22258.42263.66
Year 3 PV (M)265.80274.02282.41
Year 4 PV (M)274.92286.32298.06
Year 5 PV (M)281.05295.69310.92
PV of Terminal Value (M)9,283.699,767.1110,270.46
Equity Value (M)10,595.3611,120.6411,667.02
Shares Outstanding (M)419.41419.41419.41
Fair Value$25.26$26.52$27.82
Upside / Downside-13.45%-9.16%-4.70%

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