Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Anhui Jialiqi Advanced Composites Technology Co., Ltd. (301586.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$15.28 - $32.06$21.61
Multi-Stage$11.86 - $12.92$12.38
Blended Fair Value$17.00
Current Price$54.06
Upside-68.56%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.00%0.00%0.030.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.07%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)64.28
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)39.41
(=) Cash Retained (M)24.86
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)12.868.034.82
Cash Retained (M)24.8624.8624.86
(-) Cash Required (M)-12.86-8.03-4.82
(=) Excess Retained (M)12.0116.8320.04
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)77.8177.8177.81
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.150.220.26
LTM Dividend per Share0.510.510.51
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.150.220.26
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.660.720.76
WACC / Discount Rate10.06%10.06%10.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$15.28$21.61$32.06
Upside / Downside-71.73%-60.03%-40.70%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)64.2868.4572.9077.6482.6988.0690.70
Payout Ratio61.32%67.05%72.79%78.53%84.26%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)39.4145.9053.0760.9769.6879.2683.90

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.06%10.06%10.06%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)41.3141.7042.09
Year 2 PV (M)42.9943.8144.63
Year 3 PV (M)44.4545.7347.03
Year 4 PV (M)45.7247.4849.29
Year 5 PV (M)46.8149.0751.42
PV of Terminal Value (M)701.69735.58770.77
Equity Value (M)922.97963.371,005.23
Shares Outstanding (M)77.8177.8177.81
Fair Value$11.86$12.38$12.92
Upside / Downside-78.06%-77.10%-76.10%

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