Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Dezhou United Petroleum Technology Co.,Ltd. (301158.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$19.79 - $51.04$30.00
Multi-Stage$19.18 - $21.01$20.08
Blended Fair Value$25.04
Current Price$17.82
Upside40.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.75%0.00%0.420.160.120.100.110.090.030.000.010.13
YoY Growth--161.45%31.66%22.65%-7.11%21.92%175.58%877.84%-74.62%-90.05%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.45%1.15%0.70%0.41%0.40%0.33%0.12%0.01%0.05%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)131.16
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)45.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)85.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)26.2316.399.84
Cash Retained (M)85.2385.2385.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-26.23-16.39-9.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)59.0068.8475.40
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)149.09149.09149.09
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.51
LTM Dividend per Share0.310.310.31
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.400.460.51
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.700.770.81
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate3.58%4.58%5.58%
Fair Value$19.79$30.00$51.04
Upside / Downside11.06%68.35%186.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)131.16137.16143.44150.01156.88164.06168.98
Payout Ratio35.01%46.01%57.01%68.01%79.00%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)45.9263.1181.77102.01123.94147.65156.31

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.26%7.26%7.26%
Growth Rate3.58%4.58%5.58%
Year 1 PV (M)58.2758.8459.40
Year 2 PV (M)69.7271.0872.44
Year 3 PV (M)80.3282.6785.06
Year 4 PV (M)90.1093.6397.26
Year 5 PV (M)99.12104.00109.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,461.842,583.002,708.88
Equity Value (M)2,859.382,993.213,132.11
Shares Outstanding (M)149.09149.09149.09
Fair Value$19.18$20.08$21.01
Upside / Downside7.62%12.66%17.89%

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