Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Real-Design Intelligent Technology Co., Ltd (301135.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.60 - $38.09$17.62
Multi-Stage$9.34 - $10.21$9.76
Blended Fair Value$13.69
Current Price$28.38
Upside-51.75%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS8.41%4.65%0.300.340.290.250.260.200.210.190.170.08
YoY Growth---10.07%15.53%17.33%-3.66%27.53%-2.95%7.26%10.89%114.52%-57.50%
Dividend Yield--1.19%1.51%1.11%0.74%0.77%0.60%0.00%0.00%0.52%0.24%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)39.90
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)30.46
(=) Cash Retained (M)9.44
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.984.992.99
Cash Retained (M)9.449.449.44
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.98-4.99-2.99
(=) Excess Retained (M)1.464.456.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)105.33105.33105.33
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.290.290.29
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.010.040.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.300.330.35
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate4.01%5.01%6.01%
Fair Value$10.60$17.62$38.09
Upside / Downside-62.67%-37.90%34.23%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)39.9041.9044.0046.2148.5250.9552.48
Payout Ratio76.35%79.08%81.81%84.54%87.27%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)30.4633.1436.0039.0642.3445.8648.54

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.99%6.99%6.99%
Growth Rate4.01%5.01%6.01%
Year 1 PV (M)30.6830.9731.27
Year 2 PV (M)30.8531.4532.05
Year 3 PV (M)31.0031.9032.82
Year 4 PV (M)31.1132.3233.57
Year 5 PV (M)31.1932.7234.31
PV of Terminal Value (M)828.44869.04911.21
Equity Value (M)983.271,028.401,075.23
Shares Outstanding (M)105.33105.33105.33
Fair Value$9.34$9.76$10.21
Upside / Downside-67.11%-65.60%-64.03%

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