Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Sector

Beijing Hengyu Datacom Aviation Equipment co., Ltd. (300965.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Aerospace & DefenseSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$3.31 - $4.62$3.97
Multi-Stage$5.67 - $6.21$5.94
Blended Fair Value$4.95
Current Price$60.37
Upside-91.80%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS-43.22%0.00%0.030.070.200.300.970.510.930.751.500.00
YoY Growth---60.00%-63.41%-31.67%-68.97%90.23%-45.22%23.68%-50.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.08%0.18%0.41%0.51%0.75%0.40%0.72%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)33.23
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)22.80
(=) Cash Retained (M)10.43
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)6.654.152.49
Cash Retained (M)10.4310.4310.43
(-) Cash Required (M)-6.65-4.15-2.49
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.786.287.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)60.0160.0160.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
LTM Dividend per Share0.380.380.38
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.060.100.13
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.440.480.51
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-3.12%-2.12%-1.12%
Fair Value$3.31$3.97$4.62
Upside / Downside-94.51%-93.43%-92.34%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)33.2332.5331.8431.1630.5029.8630.75
Payout Ratio68.61%72.89%77.17%81.45%85.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)22.8023.7124.5725.3826.1526.8728.45

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.83%9.83%9.83%
Growth Rate-3.12%-2.12%-1.12%
Year 1 PV (M)21.3621.5921.81
Year 2 PV (M)19.9520.3720.78
Year 3 PV (M)18.5719.1519.75
Year 4 PV (M)17.2417.9718.71
Year 5 PV (M)15.9716.8117.69
PV of Terminal Value (M)247.35260.38273.95
Equity Value (M)340.45356.26372.69
Shares Outstanding (M)60.0160.0160.01
Fair Value$5.67$5.94$6.21
Upside / Downside-90.60%-90.17%-89.71%

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