Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen Bsc Technology Co.,Ltd. (300951.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$83.97 - $228.92$214.54
Multi-Stage$32.55 - $35.61$34.05
Blended Fair Value$124.29
Current Price$38.81
Upside220.26%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR20242023202220212020201920182017
DPS43.73%0.00%0.730.890.710.600.360.120.060.000.000.00
YoY Growth---18.34%25.20%18.65%68.45%200.20%100.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--2.38%2.98%1.72%1.90%0.80%0.18%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)193.69
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)100.56
(=) Cash Retained (M)93.13
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)38.7424.2114.53
Cash Retained (M)93.1393.1393.13
(-) Cash Required (M)-38.74-24.21-14.53
(=) Excess Retained (M)54.3968.9278.61
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)168.26168.26168.26
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.47
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.320.410.47
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.921.011.06
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$83.97$214.54$228.92
Upside / Downside116.37%452.78%489.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)193.69206.28219.69233.97249.17265.37273.33
Payout Ratio51.92%59.53%67.15%74.77%82.38%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)100.56122.80147.52174.93205.28238.83252.83

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.66%6.66%6.66%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)114.06115.14116.22
Year 2 PV (M)127.26129.68132.13
Year 3 PV (M)140.15144.18148.28
Year 4 PV (M)152.76158.63164.67
Year 5 PV (M)165.07173.04181.32
PV of Terminal Value (M)4,778.395,009.195,248.82
Equity Value (M)5,477.685,729.855,991.43
Shares Outstanding (M)168.26168.26168.26
Fair Value$32.55$34.05$35.61
Upside / Downside-16.12%-12.26%-8.25%

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