Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Loctek Ergonomic Technology Corp. (300729.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Business Equipment & SuppliesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$75.47 - $141.47$132.58
Multi-Stage$22.56 - $24.68$23.60
Blended Fair Value$78.09
Current Price$14.85
Upside425.87%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS46.93%28.60%0.530.380.210.130.120.080.060.020.010.04
YoY Growth--39.99%81.68%65.06%4.73%55.75%23.80%305.45%81.15%-80.35%1.08%
Dividend Yield--3.47%1.95%1.44%0.90%0.61%0.98%0.63%0.14%0.08%0.39%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)239.46
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)151.26
(=) Cash Retained (M)88.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)47.8929.9317.96
Cash Retained (M)88.2088.2088.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-47.89-29.93-17.96
(=) Excess Retained (M)40.3058.2670.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)336.62336.62336.62
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
LTM Dividend per Share0.450.450.45
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.120.170.21
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.570.620.66
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$75.47$132.58$141.47
Upside / Downside408.20%792.80%852.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)239.46255.02271.60289.25308.06328.08337.92
Payout Ratio63.17%68.53%73.90%79.27%84.63%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)151.26174.78200.72229.29260.72295.27312.58

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.30%6.30%6.30%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)162.89164.43165.97
Year 2 PV (M)174.32177.64181.00
Year 3 PV (M)185.58190.91196.34
Year 4 PV (M)196.66204.23212.01
Year 5 PV (M)207.57217.59228.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,667.586,989.627,324.00
Equity Value (M)7,594.607,944.438,307.31
Shares Outstanding (M)336.62336.62336.62
Fair Value$22.56$23.60$24.68
Upside / Downside51.93%58.93%66.19%

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