Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Leili Motor Co., Ltd (300660.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Electrical Equipment & PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$168.27 - $198.25$185.79
Multi-Stage$114.44 - $125.56$119.89
Blended Fair Value$152.84
Current Price$57.90
Upside163.97%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS25.93%47.42%0.760.400.400.380.320.240.270.420.150.50
YoY Growth--91.93%-0.65%5.50%17.51%34.00%-9.72%-37.10%178.43%-69.65%3,090.59%
Dividend Yield--1.92%2.01%2.28%3.09%2.94%2.84%2.57%2.99%0.53%1.75%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)318.38
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)169.01
(=) Cash Retained (M)149.37
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)63.6839.8023.88
Cash Retained (M)149.37149.37149.37
(-) Cash Required (M)-63.68-39.80-23.88
(=) Excess Retained (M)85.70109.57125.49
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)319.38319.38319.38
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.39
LTM Dividend per Share0.530.530.53
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.270.340.39
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.800.870.92
WACC / Discount Rate2.39%2.39%2.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$168.27$185.79$198.25
Upside / Downside190.62%220.88%242.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)318.38339.07361.11384.58409.58436.21449.29
Payout Ratio53.08%60.47%67.85%75.23%82.62%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)169.01205.03245.02289.34338.38392.58415.59

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate2.39%2.39%2.39%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)198.36200.24202.12
Year 2 PV (M)229.35233.71238.12
Year 3 PV (M)262.03269.55277.22
Year 4 PV (M)296.49307.89319.62
Year 5 PV (M)332.80348.87365.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)35,230.0936,931.7138,698.47
Equity Value (M)36,549.1138,291.9840,101.10
Shares Outstanding (M)319.38319.38319.38
Fair Value$114.44$119.89$125.56
Upside / Downside97.65%107.07%116.85%

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