Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Company Industry Sector

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Zhangjiagang Furui Special Equipment Co., Ltd. (300228.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$11.04 - $32.27$17.38
Multi-Stage$11.59 - $12.71$12.14
Blended Fair Value$14.76
Current Price$7.42
Upside98.95%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS69.63%-8.55%0.060.040.010.070.070.000.110.080.080.12
YoY Growth--45.68%294.88%-85.17%-7.57%1,680.46%-96.23%40.11%-1.24%-37.84%-10.21%
Dividend Yield--0.74%0.47%0.17%0.85%1.11%0.11%1.46%0.78%0.58%0.70%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)265.88
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)70.58
(=) Cash Retained (M)195.30
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)53.1833.2419.94
Cash Retained (M)195.30195.30195.30
(-) Cash Required (M)-53.18-33.24-19.94
(=) Excess Retained (M)142.12162.07175.36
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)592.77592.77592.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.30
LTM Dividend per Share0.120.120.12
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.240.270.30
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.360.390.41
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.19%4.19%5.19%
Fair Value$11.04$17.38$32.27
Upside / Downside48.85%134.25%334.86%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)265.88277.02288.61300.70313.29326.41336.20
Payout Ratio26.55%39.24%51.93%64.62%77.31%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)70.58108.69149.87194.31242.20293.77310.98

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate3.19%4.19%5.19%
Year 1 PV (M)101.04102.02103.00
Year 2 PV (M)129.51132.04134.58
Year 3 PV (M)156.10160.68165.35
Year 4 PV (M)180.88187.99195.31
Year 5 PV (M)203.94214.02224.49
PV of Terminal Value (M)6,099.386,400.726,713.85
Equity Value (M)6,870.857,197.467,536.57
Shares Outstanding (M)592.77592.77592.77
Fair Value$11.59$12.14$12.71
Upside / Downside56.21%63.64%71.35%

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