Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Beijing Comens New Materials Co.,Ltd. (300200.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.95 - $2.74$2.35
Multi-Stage$5.59 - $6.18$5.88
Blended Fair Value$4.11
Current Price$10.41
Upside-60.50%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-46.66%-24.96%0.010.150.150.300.250.130.120.120.100.10
YoY Growth---96.27%1.42%-50.36%19.81%91.66%6.22%1.67%21.38%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.06%2.23%1.70%3.97%2.53%1.73%2.22%2.19%1.02%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)139.31
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)65.42
(=) Cash Retained (M)73.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)27.8617.4110.45
Cash Retained (M)73.9073.9073.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-27.86-17.41-10.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)46.0456.4863.45
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)422.77422.77422.77
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-6.17%-5.17%-4.17%
Fair Value$1.95$2.35$2.74
Upside / Downside-81.23%-77.47%-73.67%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)139.31132.11125.28118.80112.66106.83110.03
Payout Ratio46.96%55.56%64.17%72.78%81.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)65.4273.4180.3986.4691.6996.15101.78

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.49%6.49%6.49%
Growth Rate-6.17%-5.17%-4.17%
Year 1 PV (M)68.2168.9369.66
Year 2 PV (M)69.4170.9072.40
Year 3 PV (M)69.3771.6173.90
Year 4 PV (M)68.3571.3174.37
Year 5 PV (M)66.6070.2274.00
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,022.462,132.562,247.40
Equity Value (M)2,364.402,485.532,611.73
Shares Outstanding (M)422.77422.77422.77
Fair Value$5.59$5.88$6.18
Upside / Downside-46.28%-43.52%-40.66%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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