Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Fuan Pharmaceutical (Group) Co., Ltd. (300194.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$10.16 - $24.72$23.17
Multi-Stage$3.64 - $3.99$3.81
Blended Fair Value$13.49
Current Price$4.36
Upside209.40%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS104.20%9.28%0.070.080.020.070.060.000.100.070.040.03
YoY Growth---10.39%234.56%-66.60%15.68%2,965.02%-98.03%49.36%96.85%24.35%-5.06%
Dividend Yield--1.65%2.08%0.60%1.55%1.44%0.03%2.28%1.22%0.37%0.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)144.49
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)75.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)68.82
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)28.9018.0610.84
Cash Retained (M)68.8268.8268.82
(-) Cash Required (M)-28.90-18.06-10.84
(=) Excess Retained (M)39.9250.7657.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,162.441,162.441,162.44
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
LTM Dividend per Share0.070.070.07
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.030.040.05
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.110.11
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$10.16$23.17$24.72
Upside / Downside133.02%431.35%466.99%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)144.49153.89163.89174.54185.89197.97203.91
Payout Ratio52.37%59.90%67.42%74.95%82.47%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)75.6792.17110.50130.82153.31178.17188.61

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)85.7186.5287.33
Year 2 PV (M)95.5497.3699.20
Year 3 PV (M)105.18108.20111.27
Year 4 PV (M)114.62119.02123.56
Year 5 PV (M)123.86129.84136.06
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,711.733,891.004,077.14
Equity Value (M)4,236.634,431.954,634.56
Shares Outstanding (M)1,162.441,162.441,162.44
Fair Value$3.64$3.81$3.99
Upside / Downside-16.41%-12.55%-8.56%

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