Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $28.55 - $161.92 | $52.19 |
| Multi-Stage | $17.70 - $19.31 | $18.49 |
| Blended Fair Value | $35.34 | |
| Current Price | $17.80 | |
| Upside | 98.55% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | 45.80% | 16.12% | 0.46 | 0.30 | 0.17 | 0.09 | 0.02 | 0.07 | 0.02 | 0.02 | 0.06 | 0.09 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | 52.46% | 72.86% | 100.00% | 400.00% | -75.00% | 300.00% | 0.00% | -71.43% | -32.76% | -12.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.78% | 2.30% | 1.17% | 0.80% | 0.24% | 1.26% | 0.24% | 0.24% | 0.74% | 1.01% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 596.27 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 438.86 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 157.41 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 119.25 | 74.53 | 44.72 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 157.41 | 157.41 | 157.41 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -119.25 | -74.53 | -44.72 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 38.16 | 82.88 | 112.69 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 698.39 | 698.39 | 698.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.63 | 0.63 | 0.63 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.05 | 0.12 | 0.16 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 0.68 | 0.75 | 0.79 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.02% | 8.02% | 8.02% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Fair Value | $28.55 | $52.19 | $161.92 |
| Upside / Downside | 60.37% | 193.23% | 809.64% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 596.27 | 635.02 | 676.30 | 720.26 | 767.08 | 816.94 | 841.44 |
| Payout Ratio | 73.60% | 76.88% | 80.16% | 83.44% | 86.72% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 438.86 | 488.21 | 542.13 | 600.99 | 665.21 | 735.24 | 778.34 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 8.02% | 8.02% | 8.02% |
| Growth Rate | 5.50% | 6.50% | 7.50% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 447.70 | 451.94 | 456.19 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 455.89 | 464.58 | 473.34 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 463.46 | 476.76 | 490.32 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 470.42 | 488.51 | 507.12 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 476.80 | 499.83 | 523.74 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 10,046.06 | 10,531.29 | 11,035.09 |
| Equity Value (M) | 12,360.33 | 12,912.91 | 13,485.80 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 698.39 | 698.39 | 698.39 |
| Fair Value | $17.70 | $18.49 | $19.31 |
| Upside / Downside | -0.57% | 3.87% | 8.48% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVSP | Univest Financial Corporation | 2.69% | $0.87 | 28.95% |
| VBTX | Veritex Holdings, Inc. | 2.69% | $0.81 | 38.53% |
| CBT | Cabot Corporation | 2.68% | $1.80 | 29.00% |
| PKOH | Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | 2.68% | $0.56 | 33.19% |
| WINA | Winmark Corporation | 2.68% | $10.76 | 96.24% |
| CHCO | City Holding Company | 2.67% | $3.20 | 36.27% |
| IDA | IDACORP, Inc. | 2.67% | $3.40 | 58.98% |
| LFVN | LifeVantage Corporation | 2.67% | $0.16 | 18.67% |
| MMM | 3M Company | 2.67% | $4.31 | 68.77% |
| MSEX | Middlesex Water Company | 2.67% | $1.34 | 56.69% |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 2.67% | $0.60 | 35.48% |
| 0HQU.L | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 2.66% | $2.07 | 24.22% |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | 2.66% | $0.60 | 32.28% |
| PEBK | Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. | 2.66% | $0.95 | 30.99% |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. | 2.65% | $1.63 | 26.64% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | 2.65% | $9.15 | 62.39% |
| MVBF | MVB Financial Corp. | 2.65% | $0.68 | 27.31% |
| PPG | PPG Industries, Inc. | 2.65% | $2.76 | 62.85% |
| TWMIX | American Century Emerging Markets Investor Class | 2.64% | $0.40 | 76.80% |
| 0M2A.L | Adeia Inc. | 2.63% | $0.35 | 53.29% |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | 2.63% | $1.20 | 59.56% |
| FRAF | Franklin Financial Services Corporation | 2.63% | $1.28 | 36.88% |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | 2.63% | $3.12 | 37.81% |
| VHI | Valhi, Inc. | 2.63% | $0.32 | 49.46% |
| FHI | Federated Hermes, Inc. | 2.62% | $1.37 | 27.23% |
| MKC | McCormick & Company, Incorporated | 2.62% | $1.76 | 61.04% |
| SLB | SLB N.V. | 2.62% | $1.05 | 42.94% |
| BAH | Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | 2.61% | $2.22 | 33.15% |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 2.61% | $3.18 | 49.10% |
| AWR | American States Water Company | 2.60% | $1.88 | 55.89% |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.46 | 28.75% |
| MDU | MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.51 | 62.41% |
| PLBC | Plumas Bancorp | 2.59% | $1.14 | 27.38% |
| CRD-A | Crawford & Company | 2.58% | $0.28 | 43.18% |
| WBS | Webster Financial Corporation | 2.57% | $1.64 | 29.21% |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | 2.56% | $3.90 | 26.98% |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | 2.56% | $1.63 | 49.77% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 2.56% | $8.60 | 44.61% |
| DOX | Amdocs Limited | 2.55% | $2.04 | 39.68% |
| DVN | Devon Energy Corporation | 2.55% | $0.96 | 22.55% |
| TGNA | TEGNA Inc. | 2.55% | $0.49 | 23.26% |
| CFFI | C&F Financial Corporation | 2.54% | $1.80 | 22.24% |
| MTH | Meritage Homes Corporation | 2.54% | $1.68 | 21.92% |
| DTM | DT Midstream, Inc. | 2.52% | $3.04 | 77.42% |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss & Co. | 2.52% | $0.52 | 34.78% |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas Company | 2.52% | $2.07 | 36.34% |
| AMNB | American National Bankshares Inc. | 2.51% | $1.20 | 48.76% |
| HIMYX | Pioneer High Income Municipal Fund Class Y | 2.51% | $0.14 | 81.31% |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | 2.50% | $1.18 | 37.66% |
| FMBH | First Mid Bancshares, Inc. | 2.50% | $0.96 | 26.52% |