Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Hebei Jianxin Chemical Co., Ltd. (300107.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$0.07 - $0.10$0.09
Multi-Stage$0.15 - $0.17$0.16
Blended Fair Value$0.12
Current Price$7.10
Upside-98.27%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-44.19%-1.83%0.020.060.100.100.590.290.150.030.030.02
YoY Growth---73.11%-40.75%1.36%-83.28%100.54%100.51%402.20%0.28%21.03%25.70%
Dividend Yield--0.19%0.71%1.74%1.86%10.99%4.91%1.14%0.31%0.44%0.36%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11.65
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)9.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)2.65
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.331.460.87
Cash Retained (M)2.652.652.65
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.33-1.46-0.87
(=) Excess Retained (M)0.321.191.77
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)563.01563.01563.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
LTM Dividend per Share0.020.020.02
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.000.000.00
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.020.020.02
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-10.13%-9.13%-8.13%
Fair Value$0.07$0.09$0.10
Upside / Downside-98.96%-98.79%-98.63%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11.6510.589.628.747.947.227.43
Payout Ratio77.28%79.82%82.37%84.91%87.46%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)9.008.457.927.426.956.496.88

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-10.13%-9.13%-8.13%
Year 1 PV (M)7.607.687.77
Year 2 PV (M)6.406.556.69
Year 3 PV (M)5.395.585.76
Year 4 PV (M)4.544.744.96
Year 5 PV (M)3.824.034.26
PV of Terminal Value (M)57.7160.9964.42
Equity Value (M)85.4589.5793.85
Shares Outstanding (M)563.01563.01563.01
Fair Value$0.15$0.16$0.17
Upside / Downside-97.86%-97.76%-97.65%

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