Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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BOC Aviation Limited (2588.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Rental & Leasing ServicesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$429.88 - $506.48$474.64
Multi-Stage$169.92 - $186.36$177.99
Blended Fair Value$326.31
Current Price$8.28
Upside3,840.99%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS7.81%8.93%0.470.290.260.230.360.320.320.220.060.00
YoY Growth--62.32%10.64%15.46%-36.05%9.84%0.91%43.81%265.24%0.00%-100.00%
Dividend Yield--6.06%3.80%3.14%3.10%4.11%3.18%4.33%4.20%1.24%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,767.44
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)590.60
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,176.83
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)353.49220.93132.56
Cash Retained (M)1,176.831,176.831,176.83
(-) Cash Required (M)-353.49-220.93-132.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)823.35955.901,044.28
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)694.01694.01694.01
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.191.381.50
LTM Dividend per Share0.850.850.85
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.191.381.50
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.042.232.36
WACC / Discount Rate4.57%4.57%4.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$429.88$474.64$506.48
Upside / Downside5,091.83%5,632.38%6,016.85%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,767.441,882.322,004.672,134.972,273.752,421.542,494.19
Payout Ratio33.42%44.73%56.05%67.37%78.68%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)590.60842.011,123.611,438.251,789.062,179.392,307.12

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate4.57%4.57%4.57%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)797.62805.18812.74
Year 2 PV (M)1,008.261,027.461,046.85
Year 3 PV (M)1,222.561,257.661,293.42
Year 4 PV (M)1,440.581,495.981,552.97
Year 5 PV (M)1,662.371,742.661,826.03
PV of Terminal Value (M)111,795.95117,195.73122,802.18
Equity Value (M)117,927.34123,524.68129,334.19
Shares Outstanding (M)694.01694.01694.01
Fair Value$169.92$177.99$186.36
Upside / Downside1,952.19%2,049.60%2,150.70%

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