Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Harbin Electric Company Limited (1133.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$251.12 - $295.86$277.26
Multi-Stage$176.92 - $194.19$185.39
Blended Fair Value$231.33
Current Price$5.34
Upside4,232.01%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS10.36%-3.46%0.130.100.130.150.140.080.070.080.150.16
YoY Growth--22.64%-20.02%-13.33%9.18%76.40%4.71%-9.53%-44.74%-5.62%-13.06%
Dividend Yield--5.35%5.59%4.71%5.22%7.34%3.87%2.12%3.02%4.59%5.13%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)3,226.33
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)440.10
(=) Cash Retained (M)2,786.23
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)645.27403.29241.97
Cash Retained (M)2,786.232,786.232,786.23
(-) Cash Required (M)-645.27-403.29-241.97
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,140.972,382.942,544.26
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,168.722,168.722,168.72
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.991.101.17
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.991.101.17
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.191.301.38
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$251.12$277.26$295.86
Upside / Downside4,602.58%5,092.20%5,440.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)3,226.333,436.043,659.393,897.254,150.574,420.364,552.97
Payout Ratio13.64%28.91%44.18%59.46%74.73%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)440.10993.451,616.882,317.163,101.643,978.324,211.49

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.51%1.51%1.51%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)969.46978.65987.84
Year 2 PV (M)1,539.731,569.061,598.66
Year 3 PV (M)2,153.312,215.122,278.11
Year 4 PV (M)2,812.712,920.883,032.14
Year 5 PV (M)3,520.603,690.643,867.20
PV of Terminal Value (M)372,694.22390,695.49409,385.71
Equity Value (M)383,690.02402,069.84421,149.65
Shares Outstanding (M)2,168.722,168.722,168.72
Fair Value$176.92$185.39$194.19
Upside / Downside3,213.10%3,371.81%3,536.56%

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