Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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ZCZL Industrial Technology Group Company Limited Class H (0564.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - PartsSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$195.83 - $478.90$448.80
Multi-Stage$68.52 - $75.07$71.74
Blended Fair Value$260.27
Current Price$13.56
Upside1,819.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS36.99%20.50%0.980.760.580.570.280.200.110.030.010.04
YoY Growth--28.03%31.95%1.75%103.47%37.96%79.89%268.12%319.08%-80.02%-75.88%
Dividend Yield--7.94%7.85%8.34%8.07%3.02%7.63%3.45%0.90%0.16%1.32%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)4,287.51
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)454.71
(=) Cash Retained (M)3,832.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)857.50535.94321.56
Cash Retained (M)3,832.803,832.803,832.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-857.50-535.94-321.56
(=) Excess Retained (M)2,975.303,296.863,511.24
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,780.511,780.511,780.51
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.671.851.97
LTM Dividend per Share0.260.260.26
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.671.851.97
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.932.112.23
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$195.83$448.80$478.90
Upside / Downside1,344.16%3,209.70%3,431.68%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)4,287.514,566.194,863.005,179.095,515.735,874.256,050.48
Payout Ratio10.61%26.48%42.36%58.24%74.12%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)454.711,209.332,060.123,016.414,088.325,286.835,596.70

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.54%6.54%6.54%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)1,124.461,135.111,145.77
Year 2 PV (M)1,781.111,815.041,849.28
Year 3 PV (M)2,424.872,494.482,565.41
Year 4 PV (M)3,055.913,173.433,294.31
Year 5 PV (M)3,674.433,851.914,036.18
PV of Terminal Value (M)109,948.40115,258.95120,772.75
Equity Value (M)122,009.18127,728.92133,663.70
Shares Outstanding (M)1,780.511,780.511,780.51
Fair Value$68.52$71.74$75.07
Upside / Downside405.35%429.04%453.62%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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