Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Ilyang Pharmaceutical Co.,Ltd (007570.KS)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2,805.79 - $3,784.90$3,307.68
Multi-Stage$8,681.25 - $9,626.36$9,143.77
Blended Fair Value$6,225.73
Current Price$13,710.00
Upside-54.59%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-12.55%-7.61%165.42215.56219.26487.96272.61323.43110.05292.52196.23115.22
YoY Growth---23.26%-1.69%-55.07%79.00%-15.71%193.89%-62.38%49.07%70.32%-68.44%
Dividend Yield--1.67%1.46%1.30%1.80%0.82%0.78%0.38%0.72%0.52%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)11,262.02
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)3,784.82
(=) Cash Retained (M)7,477.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2,252.401,407.75844.65
Cash Retained (M)7,477.207,477.207,477.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-2,252.40-1,407.75-844.65
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,224.796,069.446,632.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)17.9817.9817.98
(=) Excess Retained per Share290.59337.57368.89
LTM Dividend per Share210.50210.50210.50
(+) Excess Retained per Share290.59337.57368.89
(=) Adjusted Dividend501.10548.08579.39
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-9.61%-8.61%-7.61%
Fair Value$2,805.79$3,307.68$3,784.90
Upside / Downside-79.53%-75.87%-72.39%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)11,262.0210,292.339,406.138,596.247,856.087,179.657,395.04
Payout Ratio33.61%44.89%56.16%67.44%78.72%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)3,784.824,619.775,282.885,797.546,184.426,461.696,840.41

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate-9.61%-8.61%-7.61%
Year 1 PV (M)4,289.034,336.484,383.93
Year 2 PV (M)4,553.524,654.834,757.25
Year 3 PV (M)4,639.374,795.064,954.19
Year 4 PV (M)4,594.654,801.375,014.99
Year 5 PV (M)4,456.954,709.004,972.34
PV of Terminal Value (M)133,553.12141,106.03148,996.85
Equity Value (M)156,086.63164,402.77173,079.56
Shares Outstanding (M)17.9817.9817.98
Fair Value$8,681.25$9,143.77$9,626.36
Upside / Downside-36.68%-33.31%-29.79%

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