Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $8.37 - $11.93 | $10.12 |
| Multi-Stage | $23.43 - $25.86 | $24.62 |
| Blended Fair Value | $17.37 | |
| Current Price | $8.84 | |
| Upside | 96.50% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -14.94% | -7.07% | 0.23 | 0.38 | 0.23 | 0.22 | 0.30 | 0.52 | 0.47 | 0.49 | 0.67 | 0.84 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -38.96% | 62.96% | 6.83% | -26.66% | -42.86% | 10.46% | -3.47% | -27.02% | -20.82% | 75.00% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 2.81% | 4.03% | 2.05% | 1.70% | 1.99% | 2.58% | 2.18% | 1.95% | 3.03% | 4.09% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 645.25 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 295.22 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 350.02 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 129.05 | 80.66 | 48.39 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 350.02 | 350.02 | 350.02 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -129.05 | -80.66 | -48.39 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 220.97 | 269.37 | 301.63 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 501.82 | 501.82 | 501.82 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 0.44 | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 0.59 | 0.59 | 0.59 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 0.44 | 0.54 | 0.60 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 1.03 | 1.13 | 1.19 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
| Growth Rate | -5.25% | -4.25% | -3.25% |
| Fair Value | $8.37 | $10.12 | $11.93 |
| Upside / Downside | -5.32% | 14.47% | 34.96% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 645.25 | 617.84 | 591.59 | 566.46 | 542.40 | 519.35 | 534.94 |
| Payout Ratio | 45.75% | 54.60% | 63.45% | 72.30% | 81.15% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 295.22 | 337.36 | 375.38 | 409.56 | 440.16 | 467.42 | 494.82 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.40% | 6.40% | 6.40% |
| Growth Rate | -5.25% | -4.25% | -3.25% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 313.76 | 317.07 | 320.38 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 324.70 | 331.59 | 338.55 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 329.49 | 340.03 | 350.80 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 329.34 | 343.46 | 358.04 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 325.27 | 342.80 | 361.08 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 10,134.57 | 10,680.77 | 11,250.27 |
| Equity Value (M) | 11,757.13 | 12,355.73 | 12,979.12 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 501.82 | 501.82 | 501.82 |
| Fair Value | $23.43 | $24.62 | $25.86 |
| Upside / Downside | 165.03% | 178.53% | 192.58% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVSP | Univest Financial Corporation | 2.69% | $0.87 | 28.95% |
| VBTX | Veritex Holdings, Inc. | 2.69% | $0.81 | 38.53% |
| CBT | Cabot Corporation | 2.68% | $1.80 | 29.00% |
| PKOH | Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | 2.68% | $0.56 | 33.19% |
| WINA | Winmark Corporation | 2.68% | $10.76 | 96.24% |
| CHCO | City Holding Company | 2.67% | $3.20 | 36.27% |
| IDA | IDACORP, Inc. | 2.67% | $3.40 | 58.98% |
| LFVN | LifeVantage Corporation | 2.67% | $0.16 | 18.67% |
| MMM | 3M Company | 2.67% | $4.31 | 68.77% |
| MSEX | Middlesex Water Company | 2.67% | $1.34 | 56.69% |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 2.67% | $0.60 | 35.48% |
| 0HQU.L | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 2.66% | $2.07 | 24.22% |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | 2.66% | $0.60 | 32.28% |
| PEBK | Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. | 2.66% | $0.95 | 30.99% |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. | 2.65% | $1.63 | 26.64% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | 2.65% | $9.15 | 62.39% |
| MVBF | MVB Financial Corp. | 2.65% | $0.68 | 27.31% |
| PPG | PPG Industries, Inc. | 2.65% | $2.76 | 62.85% |
| TWMIX | American Century Emerging Markets Investor Class | 2.64% | $0.40 | 76.80% |
| 0M2A.L | Adeia Inc. | 2.63% | $0.35 | 53.29% |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | 2.63% | $1.20 | 59.56% |
| FRAF | Franklin Financial Services Corporation | 2.63% | $1.28 | 36.88% |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | 2.63% | $3.12 | 37.81% |
| VHI | Valhi, Inc. | 2.63% | $0.32 | 49.46% |
| FHI | Federated Hermes, Inc. | 2.62% | $1.37 | 27.23% |
| MKC | McCormick & Company, Incorporated | 2.62% | $1.76 | 61.04% |
| SLB | SLB N.V. | 2.62% | $1.05 | 42.94% |
| BAH | Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | 2.61% | $2.22 | 33.15% |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 2.61% | $3.18 | 49.10% |
| AWR | American States Water Company | 2.60% | $1.88 | 55.89% |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.46 | 28.75% |
| MDU | MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.51 | 62.41% |
| PLBC | Plumas Bancorp | 2.59% | $1.14 | 27.38% |
| CRD-A | Crawford & Company | 2.58% | $0.28 | 43.18% |
| WBS | Webster Financial Corporation | 2.57% | $1.64 | 29.21% |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | 2.56% | $3.90 | 26.98% |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | 2.56% | $1.63 | 49.77% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 2.56% | $8.60 | 44.61% |
| DOX | Amdocs Limited | 2.55% | $2.04 | 39.68% |
| DVN | Devon Energy Corporation | 2.55% | $0.96 | 22.55% |
| TGNA | TEGNA Inc. | 2.55% | $0.49 | 23.26% |
| CFFI | C&F Financial Corporation | 2.54% | $1.80 | 22.24% |
| MTH | Meritage Homes Corporation | 2.54% | $1.68 | 21.92% |
| DTM | DT Midstream, Inc. | 2.52% | $3.04 | 77.42% |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss & Co. | 2.52% | $0.52 | 34.78% |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas Company | 2.52% | $2.07 | 36.34% |
| AMNB | American National Bankshares Inc. | 2.51% | $1.20 | 48.76% |
| HIMYX | Pioneer High Income Municipal Fund Class Y | 2.51% | $0.14 | 81.31% |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | 2.50% | $1.18 | 37.66% |
| FMBH | First Mid Bancshares, Inc. | 2.50% | $0.96 | 26.52% |