Definitive Analysis
| Stable Growth | $83,455.04 - $112,780.62 | $98,466.07 |
| Multi-Stage | $266,124.48 - $295,422.01 | $280,460.88 |
| Blended Fair Value | $189,463.47 | |
| Current Price | $84,900.00 | |
| Upside | 123.16% | |
| Decision | Buy | |
| Metric | 5Y CAGR | 10Y CAGR | 2024 | 2023 | 2022 | 2021 | 2020 | 2019 | 2018 | 2017 | 2016 | 2015 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DPS | -11.62% | 5.29% | 4,207.41 | 7,087.17 | 10,428.50 | 7,825.69 | 5,764.83 | 7,803.46 | 10,435.94 | 9,426.14 | 6,598.30 | 4,974.19 |
| YoY Growth | - | - | -40.63% | -32.04% | 33.26% | 35.75% | -26.12% | -25.23% | 10.71% | 42.86% | 32.65% | 97.97% |
| Dividend Yield | - | - | 8.77% | 11.85% | 15.43% | 9.11% | 6.48% | 12.77% | 13.82% | 7.69% | 4.87% | 3.45% |
| Net Income To Common (M) | 324,576.91 |
| (-) Cash Dividends Paid (M) | 66,652.81 |
| (=) Cash Retained (M) | 257,924.09 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| Required Retention Ratio | 20.0% | 12.5% | 7.5% |
| (=) Cash Required (M) | 64,915.38 | 40,572.11 | 24,343.27 |
| Cash Retained (M) | 257,924.09 | 257,924.09 | 257,924.09 |
| (-) Cash Required (M) | -64,915.38 | -40,572.11 | -24,343.27 |
| (=) Excess Retained (M) | 193,008.71 | 217,351.98 | 233,580.83 |
| (/) Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.65 | 17.65 | 17.65 |
| (=) Excess Retained per Share | 10,937.20 | 12,316.65 | 13,236.29 |
| LTM Dividend per Share | 3,777.01 | 3,777.01 | 3,777.01 |
| (+) Excess Retained per Share | 10,937.20 | 12,316.65 | 13,236.29 |
| (=) Adjusted Dividend | 14,714.20 | 16,093.66 | 17,013.30 |
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -9.59% | -8.59% | -7.59% |
| Fair Value | $83,455.04 | $98,466.07 | $112,780.62 |
| Upside / Downside | -1.70% | 15.98% | 32.84% |
| Metric | TTM | Dec-27 | Dec-28 | Dec-29 | Dec-30 | Dec-31 | Terminal |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Income (M) | 324,576.91 | 296,679.74 | 271,180.32 | 247,872.55 | 226,568.07 | 207,094.70 | 213,307.54 |
| Payout Ratio | 20.54% | 34.43% | 48.32% | 62.21% | 76.11% | 90.00% | 92.50% |
| Projected Dividends (M) | 66,652.81 | 102,141.59 | 131,037.51 | 154,211.72 | 172,434.30 | 186,385.23 | 197,309.48 |
| Metric | LOW | BASE | HIGH |
|---|---|---|---|
| WACC / Discount Rate | 6.34% | 6.34% | 6.34% |
| Growth Rate | -9.59% | -8.59% | -7.59% |
| Year 1 PV (M) | 94,996.91 | 96,047.70 | 97,098.49 |
| Year 2 PV (M) | 113,346.82 | 115,868.22 | 118,417.36 |
| Year 3 PV (M) | 124,061.76 | 128,224.33 | 132,478.98 |
| Year 4 PV (M) | 129,018.22 | 134,822.09 | 140,819.60 |
| Year 5 PV (M) | 129,701.73 | 137,035.55 | 144,697.43 |
| PV of Terminal Value (M) | 4,105,173.19 | 4,337,295.17 | 4,579,800.42 |
| Equity Value (M) | 4,696,298.63 | 4,949,293.07 | 5,213,312.30 |
| Shares Outstanding (M) | 17.65 | 17.65 | 17.65 |
| Fair Value | $266,124.48 | $280,460.88 | $295,422.01 |
| Upside / Downside | 213.46% | 230.34% | 247.96% |
| Ticker ⇵ | Company ⇵ | Dividend Yield % ▼ | Dividend Per Share ⇵ | Payout Ratio % ⇵ |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UVSP | Univest Financial Corporation | 2.69% | $0.87 | 28.95% |
| VBTX | Veritex Holdings, Inc. | 2.69% | $0.81 | 38.53% |
| CBT | Cabot Corporation | 2.68% | $1.80 | 29.00% |
| PKOH | Park-Ohio Holdings Corp. | 2.68% | $0.56 | 33.19% |
| WINA | Winmark Corporation | 2.68% | $10.76 | 96.24% |
| CHCO | City Holding Company | 2.67% | $3.20 | 36.27% |
| IDA | IDACORP, Inc. | 2.67% | $3.40 | 58.98% |
| LFVN | LifeVantage Corporation | 2.67% | $0.16 | 18.67% |
| MMM | 3M Company | 2.67% | $4.31 | 68.77% |
| MSEX | Middlesex Water Company | 2.67% | $1.34 | 56.69% |
| ONB | Old National Bancorp | 2.67% | $0.60 | 35.48% |
| 0HQU.L | CF Industries Holdings, Inc. | 2.66% | $2.07 | 24.22% |
| MGY | Magnolia Oil & Gas Corporation | 2.66% | $0.60 | 32.28% |
| PEBK | Peoples Bancorp of North Carolina, Inc. | 2.66% | $0.95 | 30.99% |
| GSBC | Great Southern Bancorp, Inc. | 2.65% | $1.63 | 26.64% |
| HD | The Home Depot, Inc. | 2.65% | $9.15 | 62.39% |
| MVBF | MVB Financial Corp. | 2.65% | $0.68 | 27.31% |
| PPG | PPG Industries, Inc. | 2.65% | $2.76 | 62.85% |
| TWMIX | American Century Emerging Markets Investor Class | 2.64% | $0.40 | 76.80% |
| 0M2A.L | Adeia Inc. | 2.63% | $0.35 | 53.29% |
| ALLY | Ally Financial Inc. | 2.63% | $1.20 | 59.56% |
| FRAF | Franklin Financial Services Corporation | 2.63% | $1.28 | 36.88% |
| LEA | Lear Corporation | 2.63% | $3.12 | 37.81% |
| VHI | Valhi, Inc. | 2.63% | $0.32 | 49.46% |
| FHI | Federated Hermes, Inc. | 2.62% | $1.37 | 27.23% |
| MKC | McCormick & Company, Incorporated | 2.62% | $1.76 | 61.04% |
| SLB | SLB N.V. | 2.62% | $1.05 | 42.94% |
| BAH | Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation | 2.61% | $2.22 | 33.15% |
| GILD | Gilead Sciences, Inc. | 2.61% | $3.18 | 49.10% |
| AWR | American States Water Company | 2.60% | $1.88 | 55.89% |
| CBAN | Colony Bankcorp, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.46 | 28.75% |
| MDU | MDU Resources Group, Inc. | 2.59% | $0.51 | 62.41% |
| PLBC | Plumas Bancorp | 2.59% | $1.14 | 27.38% |
| CRD-A | Crawford & Company | 2.58% | $0.28 | 43.18% |
| WBS | Webster Financial Corporation | 2.57% | $1.64 | 29.21% |
| FANG | Diamondback Energy, Inc. | 2.56% | $3.90 | 26.98% |
| JEF | Jefferies Financial Group Inc. | 2.56% | $1.63 | 49.77% |
| UNH | UnitedHealth Group Incorporated | 2.56% | $8.60 | 44.61% |
| DOX | Amdocs Limited | 2.55% | $2.04 | 39.68% |
| DVN | Devon Energy Corporation | 2.55% | $0.96 | 22.55% |
| TGNA | TEGNA Inc. | 2.55% | $0.49 | 23.26% |
| CFFI | C&F Financial Corporation | 2.54% | $1.80 | 22.24% |
| MTH | Meritage Homes Corporation | 2.54% | $1.68 | 21.92% |
| DTM | DT Midstream, Inc. | 2.52% | $3.04 | 77.42% |
| LEVI | Levi Strauss & Co. | 2.52% | $0.52 | 34.78% |
| NFG | National Fuel Gas Company | 2.52% | $2.07 | 36.34% |
| AMNB | American National Bankshares Inc. | 2.51% | $1.20 | 48.76% |
| HIMYX | Pioneer High Income Municipal Fund Class Y | 2.51% | $0.14 | 81.31% |
| ACNB | ACNB Corporation | 2.50% | $1.18 | 37.66% |
| FMBH | First Mid Bancshares, Inc. | 2.50% | $0.96 | 26.52% |