Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Shenzhen keanda electronic technology co.,ltd (002972.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Hardware, Equipment & PartsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.93 - $4.49$3.66
Multi-Stage$6.40 - $7.04$6.71
Blended Fair Value$5.18
Current Price$12.06
Upside-57.02%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS45.15%0.00%0.450.430.360.140.110.070.060.160.090.00
YoY Growth--5.97%18.13%152.66%32.43%53.85%8.33%-60.00%81.82%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.08%4.23%2.80%1.16%0.88%0.39%0.55%1.37%0.75%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)79.30
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)37.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)42.07
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.869.915.95
Cash Retained (M)42.0742.0742.07
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.86-9.91-5.95
(=) Excess Retained (M)26.2132.1636.12
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)244.85244.85244.85
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
LTM Dividend per Share0.150.150.15
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.130.15
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.280.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.93$3.66$4.49
Upside / Downside-75.73%-69.69%-62.79%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)79.3078.5177.7276.9576.1875.4177.68
Payout Ratio46.95%55.56%64.17%72.78%81.39%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)37.2343.6249.8756.0062.0067.8771.85

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.68%6.68%6.68%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)40.4840.8941.30
Year 2 PV (M)42.9543.8344.72
Year 3 PV (M)44.7546.1347.54
Year 4 PV (M)45.9747.8849.84
Year 5 PV (M)46.7049.1351.67
PV of Terminal Value (M)1,345.281,415.331,488.27
Equity Value (M)1,566.131,643.191,723.34
Shares Outstanding (M)244.85244.85244.85
Fair Value$6.40$6.71$7.04
Upside / Downside-46.96%-44.35%-41.64%

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