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Definitive Analysis

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Chengdu Kanghong Pharmaceutical Group Co., Ltd (002773.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Drug Manufacturers - Specialty & GenericSector: Healthcare

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$110.59 - $269.12$252.20
Multi-Stage$39.46 - $43.18$41.28
Blended Fair Value$146.74
Current Price$37.03
Upside296.28%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS13.21%20.46%0.380.150.100.100.260.200.200.110.100.06
YoY Growth--153.33%50.00%0.00%-62.41%30.18%-0.34%87.13%13.06%48.53%10.48%
Dividend Yield--1.52%0.85%0.54%0.62%0.90%0.52%0.50%0.24%0.28%0.19%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,250.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)552.67
(=) Cash Retained (M)697.75
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)250.09156.3093.78
Cash Retained (M)697.75697.75697.75
(-) Cash Required (M)-250.09-156.30-93.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)447.67541.45603.97
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)924.05924.05924.05
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.65
LTM Dividend per Share0.600.600.60
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.480.590.65
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.081.181.25
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$110.59$252.20$269.12
Upside / Downside198.64%581.08%626.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,250.431,331.701,418.261,510.451,608.631,713.191,764.59
Payout Ratio44.20%53.36%62.52%71.68%80.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)552.67710.58886.691,082.681,300.411,541.871,632.24

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.53%6.53%6.53%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)660.75667.01673.27
Year 2 PV (M)766.67781.28796.02
Year 3 PV (M)870.48895.47920.93
Year 4 PV (M)972.211,009.601,048.05
Year 5 PV (M)1,071.881,123.651,177.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,119.4533,670.8335,281.59
Equity Value (M)36,461.4438,147.8439,897.27
Shares Outstanding (M)924.05924.05924.05
Fair Value$39.46$41.28$43.18
Upside / Downside6.56%11.49%16.60%

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