Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Guangdong Dongfang Precision Science & Technology Co., Ltd. (002611.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Industrial - MachinerySector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$17.52 - $94.51$31.76
Multi-Stage$49.31 - $54.44$51.82
Blended Fair Value$41.79
Current Price$18.02
Upside131.92%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-23.77%0.82%0.020.010.010.010.010.080.090.040.020.02
YoY Growth--37.44%101.21%-13.56%-35.92%-83.19%-13.32%122.26%155.29%-15.63%1.53%
Dividend Yield--0.16%0.19%0.14%0.17%0.31%1.69%1.96%0.30%0.09%0.17%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)680.93
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)230.92
(=) Cash Retained (M)450.01
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)136.1985.1251.07
Cash Retained (M)450.01450.01450.01
(-) Cash Required (M)-136.19-85.12-51.07
(=) Excess Retained (M)313.83364.90398.94
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.631,200.631,200.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.190.190.19
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.260.300.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.450.500.52
WACC / Discount Rate1.38%1.38%1.38%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Fair Value$17.52$31.76$94.51
Upside / Downside-2.80%76.25%424.47%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)680.93679.67678.42677.17675.92674.68694.92
Payout Ratio33.91%45.13%56.35%67.56%78.78%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)230.92306.73382.27457.53532.51607.21642.80

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate1.38%1.38%1.38%
Growth Rate-1.18%-0.18%0.82%
Year 1 PV (M)299.54302.57305.60
Year 2 PV (M)364.55371.97379.46
Year 3 PV (M)426.09439.16452.49
Year 4 PV (M)484.29504.19524.70
Year 5 PV (M)539.28567.12596.11
PV of Terminal Value (M)57,088.5360,036.2263,104.44
Equity Value (M)59,202.2862,221.2465,362.80
Shares Outstanding (M)1,200.631,200.631,200.63
Fair Value$49.31$51.82$54.44
Upside / Downside173.64%187.59%202.11%

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