Definitive Analysis
Definitive Analysis

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Zhejiang Kingland Pipeline and Technologies Co.,Ltd. (002443.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SteelSector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.82 - $2.53$2.18
Multi-Stage$5.64 - $6.23$5.93
Blended Fair Value$4.05
Current Price$7.72
Upside-47.52%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.39%-6.63%0.060.060.410.400.320.240.160.100.140.12
YoY Growth--6.00%-86.08%1.21%28.41%28.88%56.05%60.42%-32.02%17.69%1.70%
Dividend Yield--1.01%0.86%6.25%5.19%4.29%4.23%1.92%1.12%1.20%1.18%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)172.18
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)110.38
(=) Cash Retained (M)61.80
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)34.4421.5212.91
Cash Retained (M)61.8061.8061.80
(-) Cash Required (M)-34.44-21.52-12.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)27.3640.2848.88
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)524.23524.23524.23
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.080.09
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.260.290.30
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-7.06%-6.06%-5.06%
Fair Value$1.82$2.18$2.53
Upside / Downside-76.40%-71.81%-67.24%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)172.18161.75151.96142.75134.10125.98129.76
Payout Ratio64.11%69.29%74.47%79.64%84.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)110.38112.07113.15113.69113.75113.38120.03

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.35%6.35%6.35%
Growth Rate-7.06%-6.06%-5.06%
Year 1 PV (M)104.26105.38106.51
Year 2 PV (M)97.93100.05102.19
Year 3 PV (M)91.5394.5297.57
Year 4 PV (M)85.2088.9292.77
Year 5 PV (M)79.0083.3587.88
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,497.302,634.562,777.80
Equity Value (M)2,955.223,106.793,264.72
Shares Outstanding (M)524.23524.23524.23
Fair Value$5.64$5.93$6.23
Upside / Downside-26.98%-23.23%-19.33%

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