Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Sector

Jiangsu Jiuding New Material Co., Ltd. (002201.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Chemicals - SpecialtySector: Basic Materials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.00 - $1.49$1.23
Multi-Stage$1.56 - $1.72$1.64
Blended Fair Value$1.43
Current Price$7.93
Upside-81.93%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS1.20%-5.04%0.060.050.060.010.010.050.060.060.080.09
YoY Growth--6.58%-14.82%983.63%-26.67%-85.29%-13.16%-5.38%-19.27%-13.13%-2.48%
Dividend Yield--1.03%0.86%0.56%0.05%0.13%0.74%1.45%1.28%1.09%1.44%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)78.10
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)29.90
(=) Cash Retained (M)48.20
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)15.629.765.86
Cash Retained (M)48.2048.2048.20
(-) Cash Required (M)-15.62-9.76-5.86
(=) Excess Retained (M)32.5838.4442.34
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)651.94651.94651.94
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
LTM Dividend per Share0.050.050.05
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.050.060.06
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.100.100.11
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Fair Value$1.00$1.23$1.49
Upside / Downside-87.45%-84.51%-81.27%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)78.1078.2678.4178.5678.7278.8781.24
Payout Ratio38.29%48.63%58.97%69.32%79.66%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)29.9038.0646.2454.4662.7070.9875.15

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate8.75%8.75%8.75%
Growth Rate-0.80%0.20%1.20%
Year 1 PV (M)34.6535.0035.35
Year 2 PV (M)38.3239.1039.89
Year 3 PV (M)41.0942.3543.63
Year 4 PV (M)43.0744.8446.65
Year 5 PV (M)44.3946.6749.05
PV of Terminal Value (M)817.74859.80903.57
Equity Value (M)1,019.271,067.751,118.13
Shares Outstanding (M)651.94651.94651.94
Fair Value$1.56$1.64$1.72
Upside / Downside-80.28%-79.35%-78.37%

High-Yield Dividend Screener

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