Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Unigroup Guoxin Microelectronics Co., Ltd. (002049.SZ)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: SemiconductorsSector: Technology

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$98.88 - $338.02$316.77
Multi-Stage$43.12 - $47.22$45.13
Blended Fair Value$180.95
Current Price$90.31
Upside100.37%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS59.89%34.54%0.700.020.260.140.090.070.050.050.050.07
YoY Growth--2,961.31%-91.03%87.11%43.85%41.46%46.66%-11.83%14.22%-37.30%100.76%
Dividend Yield--1.07%0.04%0.23%0.09%0.12%0.19%0.14%0.14%0.21%0.23%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,432.17
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)203.70
(=) Cash Retained (M)1,228.46
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)286.43179.02107.41
Cash Retained (M)1,228.461,228.461,228.46
(-) Cash Required (M)-286.43-179.02-107.41
(=) Excess Retained (M)942.031,049.441,121.05
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)842.63842.63842.63
(=) Excess Retained per Share1.121.251.33
LTM Dividend per Share0.240.240.24
(+) Excess Retained per Share1.121.251.33
(=) Adjusted Dividend1.361.491.57
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$98.88$316.77$338.02
Upside / Downside9.49%250.76%274.29%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,432.171,525.261,624.401,729.991,842.441,962.192,021.06
Payout Ratio14.22%29.38%44.53%59.69%74.84%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)203.70448.10723.411,032.621,378.971,765.971,869.48

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.95%6.95%6.95%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)415.05418.98422.91
Year 2 PV (M)620.62632.44644.37
Year 3 PV (M)820.53844.09868.09
Year 4 PV (M)1,014.911,053.941,094.09
Year 5 PV (M)1,203.871,262.021,322.39
PV of Terminal Value (M)32,257.6833,815.7435,433.43
Equity Value (M)36,332.6638,027.2039,785.28
Shares Outstanding (M)842.63842.63842.63
Fair Value$43.12$45.13$47.22
Upside / Downside-52.26%-50.03%-47.72%

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