DDM Analysis: 000429.SZ

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth	$7.14 - $10.84	$8.88
Multi-Stage	$21.31 - $23.54	$22.40
Blended Fair Value	$15.64
Current Price	$10.89
Upside	43.63%
Decision	Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric	5Y CAGR	10Y CAGR	2024	2023	2022	2021	2020	2019	2018	2017	2016	2015
DPS	-3.24%	11.07%	0.66	0.55	0.68	0.43	0.57	0.78	0.64	0.47	0.27	0.28
YoY Growth	-	-	20.17%	-19.44%	57.63%	-24.51%	-26.39%	22.39%	34.65%	77.68%	-5.81%	22.16%
Dividend Yield	-	-	4.66%	5.52%	9.04%	5.45%	7.64%	11.52%	6.99%	5.93%	3.53%	5.06%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)

Net Income To Common (M)	1,750.89
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)	171.95
(=) Cash Retained (M)	1,578.94

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
Required Retention Ratio	20.0%	12.5%	7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)	350.18	218.86	131.32
Cash Retained (M)	1,578.94	1,578.94	1,578.94
(-) Cash Required (M)	-350.18	-218.86	-131.32
(=) Excess Retained (M)	1,228.76	1,360.08	1,447.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)	2,105.86	2,105.86	2,105.86
(=) Excess Retained per Share	0.58	0.65	0.69
LTM Dividend per Share	0.08	0.08	0.08
(+) Excess Retained per Share	0.58	0.65	0.69
(=) Adjusted Dividend	0.67	0.73	0.77
WACC / Discount Rate	5.60%	5.60%	5.60%
Growth Rate	-3.40%	-2.40%	-1.40%
Fair Value	$7.14	$8.88	$10.84
Upside / Downside	-34.40%	-18.44%	-0.44%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)

Metric	TTM	Dec-27	Dec-28	Dec-29	Dec-30	Dec-31	Terminal
Net Income (M)	1,750.89	1,708.93	1,667.97	1,628.00	1,588.98	1,550.90	1,597.43
Payout Ratio	9.82%	25.86%	41.89%	57.93%	73.96%	90.00%	92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)	171.95	441.87	698.76	943.07	1,175.28	1,395.81	1,477.62

Multi-Stage Valuation

Metric	LOW	BASE	HIGH
WACC / Discount Rate	5.60%	5.60%	5.60%
Growth Rate	-3.40%	-2.40%	-1.40%
Year 1 PV (M)	414.16	418.45	422.74
Year 2 PV (M)	613.86	626.64	639.54
Year 3 PV (M)	776.54	800.90	825.77
Year 4 PV (M)	907.05	945.19	984.53
Year 5 PV (M)	1,009.69	1,063.04	1,118.63
PV of Terminal Value (M)	41,144.28	43,318.37	45,583.41
Equity Value (M)	44,865.58	47,172.60	49,574.62
Shares Outstanding (M)	2,105.86	2,105.86	2,105.86
Fair Value	$21.31	$22.40	$23.54
Upside / Downside	95.64%	105.70%	116.17%

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Guangdong Provincial Expressway Development Co., Ltd. (000429.SZ)

Valuation Snapshot

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

Multi-Stage Valuation

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