Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

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Industry

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S&T Bancorp, Inc. (STBA)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Banks - RegionalSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$102.35 - $258.15$154.06
Multi-Stage$71.57 - $78.17$74.81
Blended Fair Value$114.43
Current Price$37.59
Upside204.42%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS6.41%9.70%1.321.291.221.151.140.970.890.740.690.63
YoY Growth--2.55%5.87%5.93%0.86%17.64%8.17%20.90%6.66%9.38%21.20%
Dividend Yield--3.56%4.04%3.87%3.88%3.40%3.54%2.23%1.85%2.01%2.46%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)175.71
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)52.27
(=) Cash Retained (M)123.45
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)35.1421.9613.18
Cash Retained (M)123.45123.45123.45
(-) Cash Required (M)-35.14-21.96-13.18
(=) Excess Retained (M)88.30101.48110.27
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)38.6038.6038.60
(=) Excess Retained per Share2.292.632.86
LTM Dividend per Share1.351.351.35
(+) Excess Retained per Share2.292.632.86
(=) Adjusted Dividend3.643.984.21
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$102.35$154.06$258.15
Upside / Downside172.29%309.83%586.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)175.71187.13199.29212.25226.05240.74247.96
Payout Ratio29.75%41.80%53.85%65.90%77.95%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)52.2778.21107.31139.87176.20216.66229.36

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.25%9.25%9.25%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)70.9271.5972.26
Year 2 PV (M)88.2389.9191.60
Year 3 PV (M)104.26107.25110.30
Year 4 PV (M)119.09123.67128.38
Year 5 PV (M)132.78139.19145.85
PV of Terminal Value (M)2,247.852,356.422,469.15
Equity Value (M)2,763.122,888.033,017.55
Shares Outstanding (M)38.6038.6038.60
Fair Value$71.57$74.81$78.17
Upside / Downside90.41%99.02%107.94%

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