Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Centurion Acquisition Corp. (ALF)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Shell CompaniesSector: Financial Services

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$2.55 - $3.61$3.08
Multi-Stage$4.00 - $4.39$4.19
Blended Fair Value$3.63
Current Price$10.55
Upside-65.55%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202120202019
DPS0.00%0.00%0.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)12.13
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)6.23
(=) Cash Retained (M)5.90
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)2.431.520.91
Cash Retained (M)5.905.905.90
(-) Cash Required (M)-2.43-1.52-0.91
(=) Excess Retained (M)3.474.384.99
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)31.0331.0331.03
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.200.200.20
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.110.140.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.310.340.36
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$2.55$3.08$3.61
Upside / Downside-75.80%-70.83%-65.73%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)12.1312.0111.8911.7711.6511.5311.88
Payout Ratio51.38%59.10%66.83%74.55%82.28%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)6.237.107.948.779.5910.3810.99

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)6.396.456.52
Year 2 PV (M)6.436.576.70
Year 3 PV (M)6.396.596.79
Year 4 PV (M)6.296.556.82
Year 5 PV (M)6.136.456.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)92.6597.47102.50
Equity Value (M)124.28130.08136.10
Shares Outstanding (M)31.0331.0331.03
Fair Value$4.00$4.19$4.39
Upside / Downside-62.04%-60.27%-58.43%

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