Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Sichuan Baicha Baidao Industrial Co., Ltd. (2555.HK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Packaged FoodsSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$6.45 - $9.15$7.78
Multi-Stage$10.60 - $11.59$11.09
Blended Fair Value$9.43
Current Price$8.68
Upside8.68%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021
DPS0.00%0.00%0.010.690.440.290.000.000.000.000.000.00
YoY Growth---98.61%57.42%47.71%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--0.09%5.91%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,349.15
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)1,027.98
(=) Cash Retained (M)321.17
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)269.83168.64101.19
Cash Retained (M)321.17321.17321.17
(-) Cash Required (M)-269.83-168.64-101.19
(=) Excess Retained (M)51.34152.52219.98
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
LTM Dividend per Share0.740.740.74
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.040.110.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.780.850.90
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$6.45$7.78$9.15
Upside / Downside-25.73%-10.37%5.43%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,349.151,335.651,322.301,309.081,295.981,283.021,321.52
Payout Ratio76.19%78.96%81.72%84.48%87.24%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)1,027.981,054.581,080.541,105.881,130.601,154.721,222.40

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.84%9.84%9.84%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)950.40960.09969.79
Year 2 PV (M)877.59895.60913.78
Year 3 PV (M)809.44834.48860.02
Year 4 PV (M)745.79776.70808.56
Year 5 PV (M)686.45722.20759.41
PV of Terminal Value (M)10,622.4911,175.6211,751.57
Equity Value (M)14,692.1615,364.6816,063.13
Shares Outstanding (M)1,385.711,385.711,385.71
Fair Value$10.60$11.09$11.59
Upside / Downside22.15%27.74%33.55%

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