Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Mitra Pinasthika Mustika Tbk (MPMX.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Auto - DealershipsSector: Consumer Cyclical

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$730.46 - $1,015.04$872.99
Multi-Stage$1,297.66 - $1,417.39$1,356.39
Blended Fair Value$1,114.69
Current Price$935.00
Upside19.22%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-24.61%0.00%114.91134.65179.00113.3788.61471.760.00125.7826.466.97
YoY Growth---14.66%-24.78%57.89%27.95%-81.22%0.00%-100.00%375.39%279.75%0.00%
Dividend Yield--11.61%13.07%14.61%10.08%15.68%102.56%0.00%15.43%3.09%1.42%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)548,368.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)525,579.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)22,789.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)109,673.6068,546.0041,127.60
Cash Retained (M)22,789.0022,789.0022,789.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-109,673.60-68,546.00-41,127.60
(=) Excess Retained (M)-86,884.60-45,757.00-18,338.60
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)4,377.754,377.754,377.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share-19.85-10.45-4.19
LTM Dividend per Share120.06120.06120.06
(+) Excess Retained per Share-19.85-10.45-4.19
(=) Adjusted Dividend100.21109.60115.87
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Fair Value$730.46$872.99$1,015.04
Upside / Downside-21.88%-6.63%8.56%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)548,368.00535,915.96523,746.67511,853.71500,230.82488,871.85503,538.00
Payout Ratio95.84%94.68%93.51%92.34%91.17%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)525,579.00507,380.42489,737.33472,633.87456,054.65439,984.66465,772.65

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate10.00%10.00%10.00%
Growth Rate-3.27%-2.27%-1.27%
Year 1 PV (M)456,538.24461,257.99465,977.74
Year 2 PV (M)396,506.32404,746.97413,072.37
Year 3 PV (M)344,314.41355,103.90366,116.46
Year 4 PV (M)298,944.59311,499.73324,446.25
Year 5 PV (M)259,510.42273,204.93287,471.56
PV of Terminal Value (M)3,924,989.654,132,113.504,347,890.53
Equity Value (M)5,680,803.635,937,927.026,204,974.92
Shares Outstanding (M)4,377.754,377.754,377.75
Fair Value$1,297.66$1,356.39$1,417.39
Upside / Downside38.79%45.07%51.59%

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