Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Hap Seng Consolidated Berhad (3034.KL)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: ConglomeratesSector: Industrials

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.31 - $1.82$1.56
Multi-Stage$3.62 - $3.98$3.80
Blended Fair Value$2.68
Current Price$2.53
Upside5.94%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS-8.56%-2.03%0.220.250.300.350.250.350.350.350.340.26
YoY Growth---10.51%-16.67%-14.29%40.00%-28.57%0.00%0.00%1.59%32.79%-5.57%
Dividend Yield--8.16%5.58%5.88%4.68%2.99%4.59%3.57%3.55%3.83%3.45%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)588.43
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)528.73
(=) Cash Retained (M)59.70
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)117.6973.5544.13
Cash Retained (M)59.7059.7059.70
(-) Cash Required (M)-117.69-73.55-44.13
(=) Excess Retained (M)-57.98-13.8515.57
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)2,489.672,489.672,489.67
(=) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.01
LTM Dividend per Share0.210.210.21
(+) Excess Retained per Share-0.02-0.010.01
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.190.210.22
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate-6.52%-5.52%-4.52%
Fair Value$1.31$1.56$1.82
Upside / Downside-48.20%-38.15%-28.17%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)588.43555.94525.25496.25468.86442.97456.26
Payout Ratio89.85%89.88%89.91%89.94%89.97%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)528.73499.70472.27446.34421.83398.68422.04

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate6.97%6.97%6.97%
Growth Rate-6.52%-5.52%-4.52%
Year 1 PV (M)462.21467.16472.10
Year 2 PV (M)404.06412.76421.54
Year 3 PV (M)353.23364.69376.39
Year 4 PV (M)308.79322.22336.08
Year 5 PV (M)269.95284.70300.09
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,204.977,598.688,009.42
Equity Value (M)9,003.229,450.209,915.62
Shares Outstanding (M)2,489.672,489.672,489.67
Fair Value$3.62$3.80$3.98
Upside / Downside42.93%50.03%57.42%

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