Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Kellanova (K)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Food ConfectionersSector: Consumer Defensive

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$26.51 - $38.38$32.28
Multi-Stage$44.88 - $49.17$46.98
Blended Fair Value$39.63
Current Price$77.94
Upside-49.15%
DecisionDon't Buy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS0.18%1.33%2.222.292.282.252.242.202.182.102.052.00
YoY Growth---3.00%0.38%1.14%0.77%1.69%0.92%3.53%2.79%2.29%2.94%
Dividend Yield--2.69%3.99%3.63%3.66%3.76%3.94%4.05%3.45%3.00%2.74%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)1,277.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)794.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)483.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)255.40159.6395.78
Cash Retained (M)483.00483.00483.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-255.40-159.63-95.78
(=) Excess Retained (M)227.60323.38387.23
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)349.75349.75349.75
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.650.921.11
LTM Dividend per Share2.272.272.27
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.650.921.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend2.923.193.38
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-1.82%-0.82%0.18%
Fair Value$26.51$32.28$38.38
Upside / Downside-65.98%-58.58%-50.76%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)1,277.001,266.551,256.181,245.901,235.701,225.581,262.35
Payout Ratio62.18%67.74%73.31%78.87%84.44%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)794.00857.98920.86982.651,043.371,103.021,167.67

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.00%9.00%9.00%
Growth Rate-1.82%-0.82%0.18%
Year 1 PV (M)779.22787.15795.09
Year 2 PV (M)759.55775.10790.81
Year 3 PV (M)736.11758.83782.02
Year 4 PV (M)709.84739.21769.47
Year 5 PV (M)681.54716.96753.84
PV of Terminal Value (M)12,029.3512,654.5713,305.51
Equity Value (M)15,695.6116,431.8217,196.74
Shares Outstanding (M)349.75349.75349.75
Fair Value$44.88$46.98$49.17
Upside / Downside-42.42%-39.72%-36.91%

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