Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Ticker

Industry

Sector

PT Elnusa Tbk (ELSA.JK)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Oil & Gas Equipment & ServicesSector: Energy

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1,716.35 - $3,956.46$2,508.17
Multi-Stage$1,311.88 - $1,428.14$1,368.98
Blended Fair Value$1,938.57
Current Price$468.00
Upside314.23%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR2024202320222021202020192018201720162015
DPS23.84%5.29%27.5725.907.4510.2412.219.465.084.3410.4539.75
YoY Growth--6.45%247.65%-27.23%-16.15%29.01%86.34%16.99%-58.44%-73.72%141.32%
Dividend Yield--6.53%6.82%2.39%3.48%3.55%6.27%1.34%0.93%2.69%11.94%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)607,166.00
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)480,141.00
(=) Cash Retained (M)127,025.00
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)121,433.2075,895.7545,537.45
Cash Retained (M)127,025.00127,025.00127,025.00
(-) Cash Required (M)-121,433.20-75,895.75-45,537.45
(=) Excess Retained (M)5,591.8051,129.2581,487.55
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)7,298.507,298.507,298.50
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.777.0111.16
LTM Dividend per Share65.7965.7965.79
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.777.0111.16
(=) Adjusted Dividend66.5572.7976.95
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Fair Value$1,716.35$2,508.17$3,956.46
Upside / Downside266.74%435.93%745.40%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)607,166.00646,631.79688,662.86733,425.94781,098.63831,870.04856,826.14
Payout Ratio79.08%81.26%83.45%85.63%87.82%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)480,141.00525,473.85574,671.38628,044.47685,928.06748,683.04792,564.18

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate9.59%9.59%9.59%
Growth Rate5.50%6.50%7.50%
Year 1 PV (M)474,984.87479,487.10483,989.32
Year 2 PV (M)469,544.65478,488.16487,516.04
Year 3 PV (M)463,848.74477,164.17490,732.02
Year 4 PV (M)457,923.81475,534.26493,647.84
Year 5 PV (M)451,794.88473,616.74496,273.78
PV of Terminal Value (M)7,256,682.137,607,182.597,971,097.53
Equity Value (M)9,574,779.089,991,473.0310,423,256.53
Shares Outstanding (M)7,298.507,298.507,298.50
Fair Value$1,311.88$1,368.98$1,428.14
Upside / Downside180.32%192.52%205.16%

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