Definitive Analysis
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Definitive Analysis

Financial Statements

Mode

Ticker

Industry

Sector

Duxton Water Limited (D2O.AX)

Company Dividend Discount ModelIndustry: Regulated WaterSector: Utilities

Valuation Snapshot

Stable Growth$1.99 - $2.93$2.44
Multi-Stage$3.68 - $4.04$3.86
Blended Fair Value$3.15
Current Price$1.52
Upside107.27%
DecisionBuy

Dividend History & Growth Metrics (10Y)

Metric5Y CAGR10Y CAGR202420232022202120202019201820172016
DPS10.92%0.00%0.060.050.050.040.040.040.020.010.000.00
YoY Growth--18.36%20.62%4.20%3.51%9.03%94.77%254.42%0.00%0.00%0.00%
Dividend Yield--4.83%3.42%2.83%2.88%3.04%2.71%1.33%0.51%0.00%0.00%

Stable Growth Model (Adjusted)

(USD in Millions except Per Share Data)
Net Income To Common (M)37.35
(-) Cash Dividends Paid (M)18.93
(=) Cash Retained (M)18.42
MetricLOWBASEHIGH
Required Retention Ratio20.0%12.5%7.5%
(=) Cash Required (M)7.474.672.80
Cash Retained (M)18.4218.4218.42
(-) Cash Required (M)-7.47-4.67-2.80
(=) Excess Retained (M)10.9513.7515.62
(/) Shares Outstanding (M)147.80147.80147.80
(=) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
LTM Dividend per Share0.130.130.13
(+) Excess Retained per Share0.070.090.11
(=) Adjusted Dividend0.200.220.23
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Fair Value$1.99$2.44$2.93
Upside / Downside30.79%60.64%93.07%

Multi-Stage Model: Projections

(USD in Millions)
MetricTTMDec-27Dec-28Dec-29Dec-30Dec-31Terminal
Net Income (M)37.3536.9736.6036.2435.8835.5236.58
Payout Ratio50.68%58.54%66.41%74.27%82.14%90.00%92.50%
Projected Dividends (M)18.9321.6524.3126.9129.4731.9733.84

Multi-Stage Valuation

MetricLOWBASEHIGH
WACC / Discount Rate7.96%7.96%7.96%
Growth Rate-2.00%-1.00%0.00%
Year 1 PV (M)19.8520.0520.25
Year 2 PV (M)20.4320.8521.28
Year 3 PV (M)20.7521.3922.04
Year 4 PV (M)20.8221.6922.58
Year 5 PV (M)20.7121.7922.91
PV of Terminal Value (M)441.63464.63488.58
Equity Value (M)544.20570.40597.64
Shares Outstanding (M)147.80147.80147.80
Fair Value$3.68$3.86$4.04
Upside / Downside142.23%153.89%166.02%

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